Ferguson
TE · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.1pts
market
Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Darren Waller or Jake Ferguson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jake Ferguson over Darren Waller by 0.5. Jake Ferguson leads at 10.1. Darren Waller is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Crowd: 55% of managers started Ferguson, 58% started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Red-zone role1.5 RZ targets/g
Cons
- Shaky floor4.5 floor
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Ferguson 25, Waller 8.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Ferguson 9.3, Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Jake Ferguson
Start Jake Ferguson — projects 10.1, an even matchup vs HOU.
Jake Ferguson projects 10.1 points on a 4.5–12.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 6.0. Net: start Jake Ferguson this week.
Working for Ferguson: Red-zone role (1.5 RZ targets/g).
Working against Ferguson: Shaky floor (4.5 floor).
Where Ferguson leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.1 vs 9.6); Floor (4.5 vs 4.2); Target share (16% vs 15%); Last 5 avg (8.3 vs 8.2); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.3); Consistency (40% vs 15%); Bust rate (24% vs 33%); Targets / game (6.0 vs 3.8); Snap share (67% vs 45%); Red zone targets (25 vs 8).
Why Darren Waller
Sit Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.4 vs 12.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.8); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 10.7); Boom rate (33% vs 24%); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 25%).
Recent form
Jake Ferguson's last 5 games: PPR points 7.6, 1.5, 2.6, 20.3, 9.3 (oldest to newest).
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Ferguson has already beaten Waller's 9.6 projection in 1 of his 5; Waller has beaten Ferguson's 10.1 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jake Ferguson (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Ferguson's edge is 0.5 points (10.1 to 9.6). Waller's ceiling (15.4) clears Ferguson's projection, so a big game from Waller flips it. Ferguson's floor (4.5) sits under Waller's projection, so a quiet game from Ferguson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)