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Scoring
#1 Start

Waller

TE · CAR vs DET

Sun 8:20 PM

Proj pts

9.6pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Pitts

TE · ATL vs NO

Mon 8:15 PM

Proj pts

9pts

market

Mod Conf

Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Darren Waller over Kyle Pitts by 0.6. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Kyle Pitts is the first one out, 0.6 short.

Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.

Availability & news

  • Darren WallerPractice: DNP

Highlights

Darren WallerStart
TE · CAR vs DET

Pros

  • Spike upside15.4 ceiling
  • Big-play upside33% boom weeks

Cons

  • Thin volume3.8 targets/g
  • Rotational role45% of snaps
Kyle PittsBench
TE · ATL vs NO

Pros

  • Alpha TE usage23% target share
  • Spike upside17.8 ceiling

Cons

  • Shaky floor3.3 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WallerStart
PittsBench
Projection9.69.0
Floor4.23.3
Ceiling15.417.8
Target share15%23%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-C
Implied team total23.522.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Waller 11.1, Pitts 1.3.

Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.

Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1, Pitts 1.5 (PPR points).

Why Darren Waller

Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.

Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.

Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).

Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).

Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 9.0); Floor (4.2 vs 3.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 4.1); vs season (-0.3 vs -7.9); Boom rate (33% vs 6%); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 14%).

Why Kyle Pitts

Sit Kyle Pitts — projects 9.0, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.

Kyle Pitts projects 9.0 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: bench Kyle Pitts this week.

Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).

Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).

Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (17.8 vs 15.4); Target share (23% vs 15%); Consistency (23% vs 15%); Bust rate (29% vs 33%); Targets / game (6.9 vs 3.8); Snap share (88% vs 45%); Red zone targets (13 vs 8).

Recent form

Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).

Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).

Waller has already beaten Pitts's 9 projection in 2 of his 5; Pitts has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.

Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.

What flips it

Waller's edge is 0.6 points (9.6 to 9). Pitts's ceiling (17.8) clears Waller's projection, so a big game from Pitts flips it. Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Pitts's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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