Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
5.5pts
market
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Dawson Knox or Drew Sample: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Drew Sample by 0.4. Dawson Knox leads at 5.5. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Knox 14, Sample 1.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 5.5, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 5.5 points on a 2.4–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.5 vs 5.1); Ceiling (16.9 vs 5.6); Target share (11% vs 5%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 27.0); Last 3 avg (3.9 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 3.0); Consistency (19% vs 0%); Bust rate (20% vs 42%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 1.7); Snap share (59% vs 56%); Red zone targets (14 vs 1); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 18%).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.1, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.1 points on a 2.4–5.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); vs season (-0.5 vs -2.7); Boom rate (25% vs 13%).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Knox has already beaten Sample's 5.1 projection in 2 of his 4; Sample has beaten Knox's 5.5 in 0 of his 2.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Knox's edge is 0.4 points (5.5 to 5.1). Sample's ceiling (5.6) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Sample flips it. Knox's floor (2.4) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)