Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
5.5pts
market
Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Dawson Knox or Jonnu Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Jonnu Smith by 0.4. Dawson Knox leads at 5.5. Jonnu Smith is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Knox 13%, Smith 24%.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5, Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 5.5, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 5.5 points on a 2.4–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.5 vs 5.1); Floor (2.4 vs 1.5); Ceiling (16.9 vs 8.8); Implied team total (27.8 vs 21.0); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 4.9); Bust rate (20% vs 29%); Snap share (59% vs 53%); Red zone targets (14 vs 8); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 14%).
Why Jonnu Smith
Sit Jonnu Smith — projects 5.1, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.1 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: bench Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B-); Last 3 avg (4.0 vs 3.9); vs season (+0.7 vs -2.7); Consistency (24% vs 19%); Boom rate (24% vs 13%); Targets / game (3.2 vs 3.1).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Knox has already beaten Smith's 5.1 projection in 2 of his 4; Smith has beaten Knox's 5.5 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Knox's edge is 0.4 points (5.5 to 5.1). Smith's ceiling (8.8) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Knox's floor (2.4) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)