Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
2.3pts
opportunity
Tremble
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
2.3pts
opportunity
Dawson Knox or Tommy Tremble: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Dawson Knox over Tommy Tremble; the two are level at 2.3. Dawson Knox leads at 2.3. Tommy Tremble is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Knox and Tremble are effectively tied on projection — Knox gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Low TE usage9% target share
- Thin volume2.5 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Knox 14, Tremble 5.
Latest game on the card: Knox 1.5 (PPR points).
Why Dawson Knox
Start Dawson Knox — projects 2.3, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 2.3 points on a -2.2–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (16.9 vs 7.0); Target share (11% vs 9%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 23.5); Last 5 avg (5.5 vs 4.7); Consistency (19% vs 0%); Bust rate (20% vs 47%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 2.5); Red zone targets (14 vs 5); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 18%).
Why Tommy Tremble
Sit Tommy Tremble — projects 2.3, an even matchup vs DET.
Tommy Tremble projects 2.3 points on a 1.6–7.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 2.5. Net: bench Tommy Tremble this week.
Working against Tremble: Low TE usage (9% target share), Thin volume (2.5 targets/g).
Where Tremble leads the head-to-head: Floor (1.6 vs -2.2); Last 3 avg (4.7 vs 3.9); vs season (+0.4 vs -2.7); Boom rate (20% vs 13%); Snap share (60% vs 59%).
Recent form
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Tommy Tremble's last 3 games: PPR points 1.4, 5.5, 7.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Knox has already beaten Tremble's 2.3 projection in 2 of his 4; Tremble has beaten Knox's 2.3 in 2 of his 3.
Matchup
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Tommy Tremble (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Knox and Tremble are level on projection (2.3). Tremble's ceiling (7) clears Knox's projection, so a big game from Tremble flips it. Knox's floor (-2.2) sits under Tremble's projection, so a quiet game from Knox flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)