Ertz
TE · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
3.4pts
opportunity
Knox
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
2.3pts
opportunity
Dawson Knox or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Zach Ertz. Bench Dawson Knox. Zach Ertz leads at 3.4. Dawson Knox is the first one out, 1.1 short.
Availability & news
Zach Ertz
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.0 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor0.2 floor
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside16.9 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Ertz 41%, Knox 19%.
Ertz: “Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.” — RotoWire, Sep 29, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Ertz 1.9, Knox 1.5 (PPR points).
Why Zach Ertz
Start Zach Ertz — projects 3.4, an even matchup vs LA.
Zach Ertz projects 3.4 points on a 0.2–15.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: start Zach Ertz this week.
Working for Ertz: Spike upside (15.0 ceiling).
Working against Ertz: Shaky floor (0.2 floor).
Where Ertz leads the head-to-head: Projection (3.4 vs 2.3); Floor (0.2 vs -2.2); Target share (19% vs 11%); Last 3 avg (8.2 vs 3.9); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 5.5); vs season (-0.2 vs -2.7); Consistency (41% vs 19%); Boom rate (23% vs 13%); Bust rate (15% vs 20%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 3.1); Snap share (66% vs 59%).
Why Dawson Knox
Sit Dawson Knox — projects 2.3, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.
Dawson Knox projects 2.3 points on a -2.2–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Dawson Knox this week.
Working for Knox: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (16.9 ceiling).
Working against Knox: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Knox leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (16.9 vs 15.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C+); Implied team total (27.8 vs 20.3); Red zone targets (14 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (23% vs 19%).
Recent form
Zach Ertz's last 5 games: PPR points 9.4, 8.2, 20.6, 2.1, 1.9 (oldest to newest).
Dawson Knox's last 4 games: PPR points 10.4, 1.7, 8.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Ertz has already beaten Knox's 2.3 projection in 3 of his 5; Knox has beaten Ertz's 3.4 in 2 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Zach Ertz (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.
Dawson Knox (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
What flips it
Ertz's edge is 1.1 points (3.4 to 2.3). Knox's ceiling (16.9) clears Ertz's projection, so a big game from Knox flips it. Ertz's floor (0.2) sits under Knox's projection, so a quiet game from Ertz flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)