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Scoring
#1 Start

Pittman

WR · PIT vs CLE

Questionable
Thu 8:15 PM

Proj pts

9.7pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Samuel

WR · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

9.3pts

opportunity

Lower Conf

Deebo Samuel Sr. or Michael Pittman: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Michael Pittman. Bench Deebo Samuel Sr. Michael Pittman leads at 9.7. Deebo Samuel Sr. is the first one out, 0.4 short.

Crowd: 63% of managers started Samuel.

Availability & news

  • Michael PittmanQuestionable

Highlights

Michael PittmanStart
WR · PIT vs CLE

Pros

  • Every-down role86% of snaps

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D- vs WR
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor
Deebo Samuel Sr.Bench
WR · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Alpha target share25% target share

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

PittmanStart
SamuelBench
Projection9.79.3
Floor3.67.2
Ceiling12.017.1
Target share21%25%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D-D+
Implied team total20.525.3

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Pittman 5.2, Samuel 13.3.

Pittman is listed: Questionable.

Latest game on the card: Pittman 3.6, Samuel 15.4 (PPR points).

Why Michael Pittman

Start Michael Pittman — projects 9.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling, carrying a questionable tag.

Michael Pittman projects 9.7 points on a 3.6–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Track the questionable designation before kickoff. Net: start Michael Pittman this week.

Working for Pittman: Every-down role (86% of snaps).

Working against Pittman: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs WR), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Pittman leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.7 vs 9.3); Boom rate (29% vs 25%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 6.2); Snap share (86% vs 72%); Red zone targets (18 vs 13).

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Sit Deebo Samuel Sr. — projects 9.3, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 9.3 points on a 7.2–17.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: targets / game at 6.2. Net: bench Deebo Samuel Sr. this week.

Working for Samuel: Alpha target share (25% target share).

Working against Samuel: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).

Where Samuel leads the head-to-head: Floor (7.2 vs 3.6); Ceiling (17.1 vs 12.0); Target share (25% vs 21%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs D-); Implied team total (25.3 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (13.3 vs 5.2); Last 5 avg (11.7 vs 5.3); vs season (+0.4 vs -1.7); Consistency (46% vs 39%); Bust rate (19% vs 35%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (D+ vs D-); Implied total (25.3 vs 20.5).

Recent form

Michael Pittman's last 5 games: PPR points 7.2, 3.6, 3.1, 8.8, 3.6 (oldest to newest).

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 11.3, 7.1, 18, 6.5, 15.4 (oldest to newest).

Pittman has already beaten Samuel's 9.3 projection in 0 of his 5; Samuel has beaten Pittman's 9.7 in 3 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Michael Pittman (PIT) faces CLE, kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

What flips it

Pittman's edge is 0.4 points (9.7 to 9.3). Samuel's ceiling (17.1) clears Pittman's projection, so a big game from Samuel flips it. Pittman's floor (3.6) sits under Samuel's projection, so a quiet game from Pittman flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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