Flournoy
WR · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Pittman
WR · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
3.5pts
10.7 proj · −7.2
Michael Pittman or Ryan Flournoy: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ryan Flournoy over Michael Pittman; the two are level at 10.7. Ryan Flournoy leads at 10.7. Michael Pittman is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Pros
- Every-down role86% of snaps
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D- vs WR
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Flournoy 7, Pittman 18.
Latest game on the card: Flournoy 4.2, Pittman 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Ryan Flournoy
Start Ryan Flournoy — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs HOU.
Ryan Flournoy projects 10.7 points on a 5.1–12.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Ryan Flournoy this week.
Working against Flournoy: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Flournoy leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.1 vs 3.6); Ceiling (12.2 vs 12.0); Implied team total (22.8 vs 20.5); Last 5 avg (7.1 vs 5.3); Bust rate (31% vs 35%).
Why Michael Pittman
Sit Michael Pittman — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Michael Pittman projects 10.7 points on a 3.6–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Michael Pittman this week.
Working for Pittman: Every-down role (86% of snaps).
Working against Pittman: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs WR), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Pittman leads the head-to-head: Target share (21% vs 11%); vs season (-1.7 vs -1.8); Consistency (39% vs 16%); Boom rate (29% vs 15%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 3.7); Snap share (86% vs 48%); Red zone targets (18 vs 7).
Recent form
Ryan Flournoy's last 4 games: PPR points 12.8, 4.2, 7.3, 4.2 (oldest to newest).
Michael Pittman's last 5 games: PPR points 7.2, 3.6, 3.1, 8.8, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Flournoy has already beaten Pittman's 10.7 projection in 1 of his 4; Pittman has beaten Flournoy's 10.7 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Michael Pittman (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Flournoy and Pittman are level on projection (10.7). Pittman's ceiling (12) clears Flournoy's projection, so a big game from Pittman flips it. Flournoy's floor (5.1) sits under Pittman's projection, so a quiet game from Flournoy flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Michael Pittman comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Michael Pittman10.5 · 10.7
- Michael Pittman or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
More Ryan Flournoy comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Ryan Flournoy or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Kalif Raymond or Ryan Flournoy10.5 · 10.7
- Ryan Flournoy or Xavier Worthy10.7 · 11.3
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)