Henry
RB · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points16.9pts
Barkley
RB · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points6.0ptsUsage estimate
13.2 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Derrick Henry over Saquon Barkley.
- Ahead by
- +10.9pts
- over Barkley
- Confidence
- High
- Saquon Barkley may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Barkley's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Derrick Henry or a bigger role for Saquon Barkley.
Risk
Saquon Barkley missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Saquon Barkley has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
HenryStartRB · BAL @ BUFUsually 17.5−0.6pts this week
Helps him
- 2.3inside the 5He averages 2.3 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- BUFvs RBsEdgeBUF is the 4th softest defense for running backs.
- 23.0ceilingHis best weeks reach about 23.0 points.
Hurts him
- +3.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
- −6.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 6.9 points below his season average.
BarkleyFirst outRB · PHI @ WASUsually 12.5−6.5pts this week
Helps him
- +5.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- +5.0ptsroleWith Pierce out, his expected role grows this week.
Hurts him
- −9.5ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.5 points off his projection.
- −3.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −3.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
- −0.7ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionHenry: 16.9 (best)Barkley: 6.0
TD pointsof the projectionHenry: 6.8Barkley: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekHenry: 1.13Barkley: Our estimate
Projected team pointsHenry: 25.8 (best)Barkley: 17.0
Goal line carriesper gameHenry: 2.3 (best)Barkley: 0.4
Red zone carriesper gameHenry: 5.3 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Red zone targetsper gameHenry: 0.1 (best)Barkley: 0.0
Role
Snap shareHenry: 57% (best)Barkley: 36%
Usage worthptsHenry: 17.6 (best)Barkley: 7.6
Touch shareHenry: 44% (best)Barkley: 22%
Target shareHenry: 6%Barkley: 7% (best)
Touches / gameHenry: 22.4 (best)Barkley: 9.8
Targets / gameHenry: 1.7Barkley: 1.8 (best)
Vacated touches this weekHenry: 0.0Barkley: 29.6 (best)
High value touches / gameHenry: 4.7 (best)Barkley: 2.0
Goal line carry shareHenry: 83% (best)Barkley: 29%
Red zone touches / gameHenry: 5.3 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Rush success rateHenry: 38%Barkley: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Henry: 2.0%Barkley: 4.7% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredHenry: Earned by usage 17.6Scored 17.5Barkley: Earned by usage 7.6Scored 7.6
Rush yards / gameHenry: 82.7 (best)Barkley: 48.8
Points from rushingHenry: 81%Barkley: 80%
WOPRHenry: 0.08Barkley: 0.09 (best)
RZ target shareHenry: 4% (best)Barkley: 0%
Inside 10 target shareHenry: 0%Barkley: 0%
Catch rateHenry: 83% (best)Barkley: 67%
Rushing points / gameHenry: 14.3 pts / game (best)Barkley: 6.1 pts / game
Rushing floorHenry: 10.2 pts / game (best)Barkley: 3.3 pts / game
Range
FloorHenry: 10.7 (best)Barkley: 0.0
CeilingHenry: 23.0 (best)Barkley: 8.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerHenry: 39%Barkley: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Henry: 43% (best)Barkley: 10%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterHenry: 18%Barkley: 14% (best)
SteadinessHenry: Steady±10.3 ptsBarkley: Steady (best)±6.7 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmHenry: A (best)Barkley: C
Game scriptHenry: Expected to trail (best)Barkley: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterHenry: 1.0 (best)Barkley: 1.3
Defense funnelHenry: NeutralBarkley: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedHenry: 15th (average) (best)Barkley: 14th (average)
Backfield roleHenry: LeadBarkley: Lead
Opp defender outHenry: None listedBarkley: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceHenry: OpenturfBarkley: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleHenry: NormalBarkley: Normal
Opp paceHenry: 24th (slow)Barkley: 12th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateHenry: 22%5th (tough)Barkley: 18% (best)17th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedHenry: 3.64th (tough)Barkley: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedHenry: 31st (soft) (best)Barkley: 28th (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / game31st (soft)Henry: 0.2Barkley: 0.2
Opp catch rate allowedHenry: 70%5th (tough)Barkley: 73% (best)10th (tough)
Starting QBHenry: Huntley (Active)Barkley: McKee (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgHenry: 10.6 (best)Barkley: 8.7
Last 5 avgHenry: 13.9 (best)Barkley: 7.6
vs seasonHenry: −6.9 (Cooling)Barkley: +1.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryHenry: 3.9Barkley: 5.7 (best)
Carries / gameHenry: 21.0 (best)Barkley: 8.6
Yards per route runHenry: 1.45 (best)Barkley: 0.65
Receiving aDOTHenry: −2.5Barkley: −0.6
Touch share trendHenry: SteadyBarkley: Left 2 games hurt
Games since injuryHenry: None recentlyBarkley: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesHenry: 99% (best)Barkley: 65%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterHenry: RB6 (best)Barkley: RB38
Yards linerushingHenry: 78.5Barkley: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.