Scoring

2026Week 4PPRStart 1recent form incl. 2025

#1 Start

Wicks

WR · PHI vs LA

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

11.5pts

market

Lower Conf

Bench

Concepcion

WR · CLE vs PIT

Thu 8:15 PM

Proj pts

11.1pts

market

Lower Conf

#1 START

Wicks

WR · PHI vs LA

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM

Projected points

11.5pts

market

Lower Confidence

BENCH

Concepcion

WR · CLE vs PIT

Kickoff Thu 8:15 PM

Projected points

11.1pts

market

Lower Confidence

Dontayvion Wicks or KC Concepcion: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Dontayvion Wicks. Bench KC Concepcion. Dontayvion Wicks leads at 11.5. KC Concepcion is the first one out, 0.4 short.

Crowd: started Wicks 33%

Availability & news

KC Concepcion
Concepcion finished Sunday's 21-18 victory versus Carolina with two catches (on nine targets) for nine yards. He also returned one punt for one yard.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)

Highlights

Dontayvion WicksStart

WR · PHI vs LA

Cons

Low target share13% target share
Thin volume3.5 targets/g

KC ConcepcionBench

WR · CLE vs PIT

Pros

Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR

Cons

Low team total18.0 team total

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

	WicksStart	ConcepcionBench
Projection	11.5	11.1
Floor	3.4	—
Ceiling	15.2	—
Target share	13%	24%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)	B	B+
Implied team total	20.3	18.0

	WicksStart	ConcepcionBench
Grade vs WR(recency weighted)	B	B+
Defense funnel	Neutral	Pass
Implied total	20.3	18.0
Spread	+3.0	+2.5
Game script projection	Trailing	Neutral
Opp pass yds allowed	2nd	10th
Opp sacks / game	1.0	2.7
Opp takeaways / game	1.0	2.0
Personnel status	Hurts (Active)	Watson (Active)
Opp starters out	None	None
Weather(when it matters)	not shown	not shown
Roof / surface	Open · grass	Open · grass
Rest / schedule	Short week (5d)	Short week (4d)
Opp pace	9th	13th

Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET

Why Dontayvion Wicks

Start Dontayvion Wicks — projects 11.5, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.

Dontayvion Wicks projects 11.5 points on a 3.4–15.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.5. Net: Dontayvion Wicks is start this week.

Working against Wicks: Low target share (13% target share), Thin volume (3.5 targets/g).

Where Wicks leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.5 vs 11.1); Implied team total (20.3 vs 18.0); Last 3 avg (11.0 vs 6.3); Last 5 avg (8.7 vs 6.3); vs season (+0.3 vs +0.0); Boom rate (8% vs 0%); Bust rate (25% vs 33%); Red zone targets (4 vs 2); Implied total (20.3 vs 18.0); Rest / schedule (Short week (5d) vs Short week (4d)).

Why KC Concepcion

Sit KC Concepcion — projects 11.1, a favorable matchup vs PIT.

KC Concepcion projects 11.1 points. The matchup grades as favorable against PIT. Usage: targets / game at 6.7. Net: KC Concepcion is a bench this week.

Working for Concepcion: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).

Working against Concepcion: Low team total (18.0 team total).

Where Concepcion leads the head-to-head: Target share (24% vs 13%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B); Consistency (62% vs 0%); Targets / game (6.7 vs 3.5); Snap share (74% vs 47%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B+ vs B).

Recent form

Dontayvion Wicks's last 4 games: PPR points 1.7, 15.3, 12.4, 5.2 (oldest to newest).

KC Concepcion's last 3 games: PPR points 2.9, 7.8, 8.2 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Wicks has already beaten Concepcion's 11.1 projection in 2 of his 4; Concepcion has beaten Wicks's 11.5 in 0 of his 3.

Matchup

Dontayvion Wicks (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.

KC Concepcion (CLE) faces PIT, kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +2.5.

How to read these numbers

Confidence in the call: How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
Floor: The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
Ceiling: The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
Matchup grade: The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
Implied team total: The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
Trend: The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
Consistency: The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
Boom rate: The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
Bust rate: The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
Defense funnel: Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
Game script projection: The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Dontayvion Wicks comparisons

More KC Concepcion comparisons

This week's toughest calls

WicksStart

ConcepcionBench

Projection

11.5

11.1

Floor

3.4

—

Ceiling

15.2

—

Target share

13%

24%

Matchup grade(recency weighted)

B+

Implied team total

20.3

18.0

Why Dontayvion Wicks

Start Dontayvion Wicks — projects 11.5, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.

Dontayvion Wicks projects 11.5 points on a 3.4–15.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.5. Net: Dontayvion Wicks is start this week.

Working against Wicks: Low target share (13% target share), Thin volume (3.5 targets/g).

Why KC Concepcion

Sit KC Concepcion — projects 11.1, a favorable matchup vs PIT.

KC Concepcion projects 11.1 points. The matchup grades as favorable against PIT. Usage: targets / game at 6.7. Net: KC Concepcion is a bench this week.

Working for Concepcion: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).

Working against Concepcion: Low team total (18.0 team total).

Recent form

Dontayvion Wicks's last 4 games: PPR points 1.7, 15.3, 12.4, 5.2 (oldest to newest).

KC Concepcion's last 3 games: PPR points 2.9, 7.8, 8.2 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Wicks has already beaten Concepcion's 11.1 projection in 2 of his 4; Concepcion has beaten Wicks's 11.5 in 0 of his 3.

How to read these numbers

Confidence in the call

How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.

Floor

The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Ceiling

The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Matchup grade

The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.

Implied team total

The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.

Trend

The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.

Consistency

The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.

Boom rate

The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.

Bust rate

The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.

Defense funnel

Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.

Game script projection

The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.