nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Marks

RB · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

12.2pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Wilson

RB · SEA vs LAC

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

11.5pts

market

Mod Conf

Emanuel Wilson or Woody Marks: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Woody Marks over Emanuel Wilson by 0.7. Woody Marks leads at 12.2. Emanuel Wilson is the first one out, 0.6 short.

Availability & news

  • Woody Marks

    Marks turned five carries into 15 yards and a touchdown and hauled in his lone target for six yards during the Texans' 19-17 loss to the Colts on Sunday. He also returned two kickoffs for 52 yards.(rotowire, Sep 28, 2026)

Highlights

Woody MarksStart
RB · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
  • Positive game scriptFavored

Cons

  • Committee back26% of touches
Emanuel WilsonBench
RB · SEA vs LAC

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored

Cons

  • Committee back17% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · D- vs RB

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

MarksStart
WilsonBench
Projection12.211.5
Floor7.24.6
Ceiling13.214.3
Touch share26%17%
Opportunity score11.06.2
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A-D-
Implied team total25.824.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is goal line carries: Marks 9, Wilson 4.

Marks: “Marks turned five carries into 15 yards and a touchdown and hauled in his lone target for six yards during the Texans' 19-17 loss to the Colts on Sunday. He also returned two kickoffs for 52 yards.” — RotoWire, Sep 28, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Marks 9.1, Wilson 1.4 (PPR points).

Why Woody Marks

Start Woody Marks — projects 12.2, a run-funnel matchup vs DAL.

Woody Marks projects 12.2 points on a 7.2–13.2 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against DAL. Usage: carries / game at 12.2. Net: start Woody Marks this week.

Working for Marks: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Positive game script (Favored).

Working against Marks: Committee back (26% of touches).

Where Marks leads the head-to-head: Projection (12.2 vs 11.5); Floor (7.2 vs 4.6); Touch share (26% vs 17%); Opportunity score (11.0 vs 6.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs D-); Implied team total (25.8 vs 24.8); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 3.6); Last 5 avg (7.6 vs 4.0); vs season (-0.8 vs -2.0); Consistency (34% vs 28%); Boom rate (21% vs 11%); Bust rate (21% vs 33%); Carries / game (12.2 vs 7.4); Touches / game (13.8 vs 8.2); Target share (7% vs 4%); Snap share (52% vs 31%); Goal line carries (9 vs 4); Red zone carries (41 vs 24).

Why Emanuel Wilson

Sit Emanuel Wilson — projects 11.5, a tough matchup vs LAC.

Emanuel Wilson projects 11.5 points on a 4.6–14.3 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: carries / game at 7.4. Net: bench Emanuel Wilson this week.

Working for Wilson: Positive game script (Favored).

Working against Wilson: Committee back (17% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs RB).

Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (14.3 vs 13.2); Yards per carry (4.0 vs 3.6).

Recent form

Woody Marks's last 5 games: PPR points 8.5, 6.8, 5, 8.5, 9.1 (oldest to newest).

Emanuel Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 3.4, 5.8, 0.3, 9.2, 1.4 (oldest to newest).

Marks has already beaten Wilson's 11.5 projection in 0 of his 5; Wilson has beaten Marks's 12.2 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Woody Marks (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

Emanuel Wilson (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.

What flips it

Marks's edge is 0.7 points (12.2 to 11.5). Wilson's ceiling (14.3) clears Marks's projection, so a big game from Wilson flips it. Marks's floor (7.2) sits under Wilson's projection, so a quiet game from Marks flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Emanuel Wilson comparisons

More Woody Marks comparisons

This week's toughest calls