Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Engram
TE · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
7.7pts
market
Evan Engram or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Michael Mayer. Bench Evan Engram. Michael Mayer leads at 8.3. Evan Engram is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role42% of snaps
- Shaky floor2.8 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Mayer 6, Engram 12.
Latest game on the card: Mayer 12.2, Engram 0 (PPR points).
Why Michael Mayer
Start Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.3 vs 7.7); Floor (5.5 vs 2.8); Ceiling (12.1 vs 11.7); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 5.7); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 6.1); vs season (+3.6 vs -0.1); Boom rate (20% vs 19%); Bust rate (20% vs 31%); Snap share (62% vs 42%); Touchdown dependence (7% vs 6%).
Why Evan Engram
Sit Evan Engram — projects 7.7, a favorable matchup vs SF.
Evan Engram projects 7.7 points on a 2.8–11.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against SF. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Evan Engram this week.
Working for Engram: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Engram: Rotational role (42% of snaps), Shaky floor (2.8 floor).
Where Engram leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D+); Implied team total (22.3 vs 21.5); Consistency (41% vs 31%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 3.8); Red zone targets (12 vs 6); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (B+ vs D+); Implied total (22.3 vs 21.5).
Recent form
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Evan Engram's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 7.5, 14.3, 2.7, 0 (oldest to newest).
Mayer has already beaten Engram's 7.7 projection in 4 of his 5; Engram has beaten Mayer's 8.3 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Evan Engram (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Mayer's edge is 0.6 points (8.3 to 7.7). Engram's ceiling (11.7) clears Mayer's projection, so a big game from Engram flips it. Mayer's floor (5.5) sits under Engram's projection, so a quiet game from Mayer flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)