nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Nacua

WR · LA vs PHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

20.9pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Wilson

WR · NYJ vs CHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

20.2pts

market

Mod Conf

Garrett Wilson or Puka Nacua: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Puka Nacua over Garrett Wilson by 0.7. Puka Nacua leads at 20.9. Garrett Wilson is the first one out, 0.7 short.

Crowd: 68% of managers started Nacua, 97% started Wilson.

Availability & news

  • Puka NacuaPractice: Limited

    Nacua (hip) officially was listed as a limited participant on Thursday's injury report, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Puka NacuaStart
WR · LA vs PHI

Pros

  • Alpha target share30% target share
  • Target volume10.4 targets/g
  • High floor15.3 floor

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
  • Rotational snaps68% of snaps
Garrett WilsonBench
WR · NYJ vs CHI

Pros

  • Alpha target share35% target share
  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs WR
  • High floor13.0 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

NacuaStart
WilsonBench
Projection20.920.2
Floor15.313.0
Ceiling33.023.7
Target share30%35%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D+A-
Implied team total23.020.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Nacua 6%, Wilson 29%.

Nacua (Practice: Limited): “Nacua (hip) officially was listed as a limited participant on Thursday's injury report, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Nacua 12.4, Wilson 26.7 (PPR points).

Why Puka Nacua

Start Puka Nacua — projects 20.9, a tough matchup vs PHI.

Puka Nacua projects 20.9 points on a 15.3–33.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against PHI. Usage: targets / game at 10.4. Net: start Puka Nacua this week.

Working for Nacua: Alpha target share (30% target share), Target volume (10.4 targets/g), High floor (15.3 floor).

Working against Nacua: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR), Rotational snaps (68% of snaps).

Where Nacua leads the head-to-head: Projection (20.9 vs 20.2); Floor (15.3 vs 13.0); Ceiling (33.0 vs 23.7); Implied team total (23.0 vs 20.0); Last 5 avg (25.7 vs 12.5); vs season (+3.1 vs -3.5); Consistency (58% vs 41%); Bust rate (6% vs 29%); Targets / game (10.4 vs 8.4); Red zone targets (21 vs 5).

Why Garrett Wilson

Sit Garrett Wilson — projects 20.2, a favorable matchup vs CHI.

Garrett Wilson projects 20.2 points on a 13.0–23.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against CHI. Usage: targets / game at 8.4. Net: bench Garrett Wilson this week.

Working for Wilson: Alpha target share (35% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs WR), High floor (13.0 floor).

Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Target share (35% vs 30%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs D+); Last 3 avg (19.1 vs 18.0); Boom rate (29% vs 19%); Snap share (87% vs 68%).

Recent form

Puka Nacua's last 5 games: PPR points 27.9, 46.5, 15.7, 26, 12.4 (oldest to newest).

Garrett Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 4.3, 1, 13.9, 16.7, 26.7 (oldest to newest).

Nacua has already beaten Wilson's 20.2 projection in 3 of his 5; Wilson has beaten Nacua's 20.9 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Puka Nacua (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) faces CHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 20.0, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Nacua's edge is 0.7 points (20.9 to 20.2). Wilson's ceiling (23.7) clears Nacua's projection, so a big game from Wilson flips it. Nacua's floor (15.3) sits under Wilson's projection, so a quiet game from Nacua flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Garrett Wilson comparisons

More Puka Nacua comparisons

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