Holani
RB · SEA vs CHI
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points5.0ptsUsage estimate
Mitchell
RB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Toss-up
Bench
George Holani or Keaton Mitchell: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. George Holani gets the nod over Keaton Mitchell.
- Ahead by
- +0.2pts
- over Mitchell
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Holani's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Mitchell
The case for Mitchell is a bigger share of the backfield work (17% of the team's touches to 14%) and more carries that keep drives going (37% to 33%).
Flips if
Start Keaton Mitchell instead if you want more long runs (2.9% of carries go 20+ yards to 0%).
Risk
The risk: Mitchell faces a Rams defense without linebacker Myles Garrett.
Highlights
HolaniToss-upRB · SEA vs CHIUsually 5.1−0.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.6ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- −3.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.
Hurts him
- −1.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- 14%touchesHe handles only 14% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 3rd softestper carryEdgeCHI allows few RB chances because teams throw on them; per carry or target they’re soft (0.85 pts, 3rd softest).
MitchellFirst outRB · LAC @ LAUsually 6.2−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- OutGarrettEdgeHe faces a Rams defense without linebacker Myles Garrett.
Hurts him
- −1.3pts2 linesRushing yards 15.5 (usual 23.2) and catches 1.5 (usual 2.0) both sit below his usual.
- 17%touchesHe handles only 17% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionHolani: 5.0 (best)Mitchell: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionHolani: Our estimateMitchell: 1.1
Expected TDsthis weekHolani: Our estimateMitchell: 0.19
Projected team pointsHolani: 24.8 (best)Mitchell: 19.3
Goal line carriesper gameHolani: 0.7 (best)Mitchell: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameHolani: 1.3 (best)Mitchell: 0.5
Red zone targetsper gameHolani: 0.3 (best)Mitchell: 0.2
Role
Snap shareHolani: 40% (best)Mitchell: 32%
Usage worthptsHolani: 7.1 (best)Mitchell: 6.6
Touch shareHolani: 14%Mitchell: 17% (best)
Target shareHolani: 7%Mitchell: 9% (best)
Touches / gameHolani: 6.9Mitchell: 7.8 (best)
Targets / gameHolani: 2.0Mitchell: 2.5 (best)
Vacated touches this weekHolani: 11.7 (best)Mitchell: 0.0
High value touches / gameHolani: 2.4 (best)Mitchell: 2.2
Goal line carry shareHolani: 36% (best)Mitchell: 0%
Red zone touches / gameHolani: 1.6 (best)Mitchell: 0.7
Rush success rateHolani: 33%Mitchell: 37% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Holani: 0%Mitchell: 2.9% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredHolani: Earned by usage 7.1Scored 5.1Mitchell: Earned by usage 6.6Scored 6.2
Rush yards / gameHolani: 15.4Mitchell: 23.2 (best)
Points from rushingHolani: 47%Mitchell: 37%
WOPRHolani: 0.10Mitchell: 0.12 (best)
RZ target shareHolani: 7% (best)Mitchell: 5%
Inside 10 target shareHolani: 0%Mitchell: 8% (best)
Catch rateHolani: 86% (best)Mitchell: 80%
Rushing points / gameHolani: 2.4 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 2.3 pts / game
Rushing floorHolani: 2.3 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 1.8 pts / game
Range
FloorHolani: 3.0 (best)Mitchell: 2.6
CeilingHolani: 7.9Mitchell: 8.3 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerHolani: 17%Mitchell: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Holani: 0%Mitchell: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterHolani: 71%Mitchell: 67% (best)
SteadinessHolani: Steady (best)±3.2 pts · 7 gamesMitchell: Volatile±5.4 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmHolani: C- (best)Mitchell: D+
Game scriptHolani: Expected to lead (best)Mitchell: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterHolani: 1.4Mitchell: 0.9 (best)
Defense funnelHolani: NeutralMitchell: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedHolani: 3rd (tough)Mitchell: 18th (average) (best)
Backfield roleHolani: CommitteeMitchell: Backup
Opp defender outHolani: Johnson (SAF)Mitchell: Garrett (LB)
Roof / surfaceturfHolani: OpenMitchell: Dome
Rest / scheduleHolani: NormalMitchell: Off a bye
Opp paceHolani: 1st (fast) (best)Mitchell: 3rd (fast)
Opp stuff rateHolani: 18% (best)18th (average)Mitchell: 19%14th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedHolani: 4.3 (best)21st (average)Mitchell: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedHolani: 20th (average) (best)Mitchell: 4th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / game24th (soft)Holani: 0.1Mitchell: 0.1
Opp catch rate allowedHolani: 84% (best)25th (soft)Mitchell: 78%16th (average)
Starting QBHolani: Darnold (Active)Mitchell: Herbert (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgHolani: 5.5Mitchell: 5.9 (best)
Last 5 avgHolani: 6.0Mitchell: 7.2 (best)
vs seasonHolani: +0.4 (Steady) (best)Mitchell: −0.3 (Steady)
Yards per carryHolani: 3.0Mitchell: 4.0 (best)
Carries / gameHolani: 5.1Mitchell: 5.8 (best)
Yards per route runHolani: 1.00 (best)Mitchell: 0.83
Receiving aDOTHolani: −0.3Mitchell: −1.8
Touch share trendHolani: SteadyMitchell: Cooling
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterHolani: RB47 (best)Mitchell: RB49
Yards linerushingHolani: Our estimateMitchell: 15.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.