Dulcich
TE · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Greg Dulcich or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Greg Dulcich. Bench Michael Mayer. Greg Dulcich leads at 8.4. Michael Mayer is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
- Low team total14.0 team total
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Dulcich 11%, Mayer 20%.
Latest game on the card: Dulcich 10.5, Mayer 12.2 (PPR points).
Why Greg Dulcich
Start Greg Dulcich — projects 8.4, a tough matchup vs MIN.
Greg Dulcich projects 8.4 points on a 4.9–9.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Greg Dulcich this week.
Working against Dulcich: Thin volume (3.7 targets/g), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Dulcich leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 8.3); Target share (15% vs 14%); Consistency (47% vs 31%); Bust rate (11% vs 20%); Red zone targets (7 vs 6); Touchdown dependence (9% vs 7%).
Why Michael Mayer
Sit Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 4.9); Ceiling (12.1 vs 9.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs D); Implied team total (21.5 vs 14.0); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 6.0); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 6.3); vs season (+3.6 vs -0.9); Boom rate (20% vs 11%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.7); Snap share (62% vs 44%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (D+ vs D); Implied total (21.5 vs 14.0).
Recent form
Greg Dulcich's last 4 games: PPR points 7.1, 3.8, 3.7, 10.5 (oldest to newest).
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Dulcich has already beaten Mayer's 8.3 projection in 1 of his 4; Mayer has beaten Dulcich's 8.4 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Greg Dulcich (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Dulcich's edge is 0.1 points (8.4 to 8.3). Mayer's ceiling (12.1) clears Dulcich's projection, so a big game from Mayer flips it. Dulcich's floor (4.9) sits under Mayer's projection, so a quiet game from Dulcich flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)