Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Gunnar Helm or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Michael Mayer. Bench Gunnar Helm. Michael Mayer leads at 8.3. Gunnar Helm is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Mayer 10.5, Helm 3.5.
Latest game on the card: Mayer 12.2, Helm 3.4 (PPR points).
Why Michael Mayer
Start Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.3 vs 7.6); Floor (5.5 vs 3.2); Ceiling (12.1 vs 10.1); Target share (14% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs D); Implied team total (21.5 vs 16.0); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 3.5); vs season (+3.6 vs -2.5); Boom rate (20% vs 19%); Bust rate (20% vs 31%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.4); Snap share (62% vs 53%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (D+ vs D); Implied total (21.5 vs 16.0).
Why Gunnar Helm
Sit Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: bench Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Consistency (34% vs 31%); Red zone targets (8 vs 6); Touchdown dependence (13% vs 7%).
Recent form
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
Mayer has already beaten Helm's 7.6 projection in 4 of his 5; Helm has beaten Mayer's 8.3 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Mayer's edge is 0.7 points (8.3 to 7.6). Helm's ceiling (10.1) clears Mayer's projection, so a big game from Helm flips it. Mayer's floor (5.5) sits under Helm's projection, so a quiet game from Mayer flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)