Thomas
TE · LV @ NYJ
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · shoulder
Projected points1.4ptsUsage estimate
Durham
TE · TB vs ATL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points1.3ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Ian Thomas or Payne Durham: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Ian Thomas gets the nod over Payne Durham.
- Ahead by
- +0.1pts
- over Durham
- Confidence
- Lower
- Toss-up
Case for Durham
The case for Durham is the easier matchup (the 15th softest defense for tight ends, while Thomas faces the 16th softest defense for tight ends) and an offense expected to score more (23.0 points to 22.0).
Flips if
If Ian Thomas is ruled out or inactive, start Payne Durham.
Risk
Ian Thomas was limited in practice: check the final injury report and the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Weather in Payne Durham's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. As of Fri 8:00 PM ET
Highlights
ThomasToss-upTE · LV @ NYJUsually 2.4−1.1pts this week
Helps him
- OutBaileyEdgeHe faces a Jets defense without linebacker David Bailey.
Hurts him
- −1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play fewer snaps this week than he has lately.
- −0.6ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- 2%targetsHe draws only 2% of his team’s targets.
- 0.7per gameHe sees only 0.7 targets a game.
DurhamFirst outTE · TB vs ATLUsually 0.2+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.6ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
Hurts him
- 1%targetsHe draws only 1% of his team’s targets.
- 0.3per gameHe sees only 0.3 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionThomas: 1.4 (best)Durham: 1.3
Projected team pointsThomas: 22.0Durham: 23.0 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameThomas: 0.0Durham: 0.0
Role
Snap shareThomas: 33% (best)Durham: 28%
Usage worthptsThomas: 1.1 (best)Durham: 0.4
Target shareThomas: 2% (best)Durham: 1%
Targets / gameThomas: 0.7 (best)Durham: 0.3
Air yards shareThomas: 1% (best)Durham: 0.4%
Vacated targets this weekThomas: 3.0Durham: 9.2 (best)
RZ target shareThomas: 0%Durham: 0%
Inside 10 target shareThomas: 0%Durham: 0%
Catch rateThomas: 100%Durham: 2 targets
Usage worth vs scoredThomas: Earned by usage 1.1Scored 2.4Durham: Earned by usage 0.4Scored 0.2
WOPRThomas: 0.03 (best)Durham: 0.02
Range
FloorThomas: 0.7Durham: 0.7
CeilingThomas: 2.3 (best)Durham: 2.2
Points from TDssteadier when lowerThomas: 35%Durham: 0%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Thomas: 0%Durham: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterThomas: 80% (best)Durham: 100%
SteadinessThomas: Volatile±4.4 pts · 5 gamesDurham: Avg 0 or below
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmThomas: CDurham: C+ (best)
Game scriptThomas: Expected to trailDurham: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterThomas: 1.1 (best)Durham: 1.3
Defense funnelThomas: NeutralDurham: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedThomas: 5th (tough)Durham: 29th (soft) (best)
Starting QBThomas: Cousins (Active)Durham: Mayfield (Active)
Opp defender outThomas: Bailey (LB)Durham: None listed
WeatherThomas: No concernDurham: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfaceThomas: OpenturfDurham: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleThomas: NormalDurham: Normal
Opp paceThomas: 28th (slow)Durham: 21st (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game4th (tough)Thomas: 0.1Durham: 0.1
Opp catch rate allowedThomas: 72%14th (average)Durham: 77% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgThomas: 1.2 (best)Durham: 0.5
Last 5 avgThomas: 3.0 (best)Durham: 0.3
vs seasonThomas: −1.2 (Cooling)Durham: +0.3 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runThomas: 1.67 (best)Durham: 0.36
Receiving aDOTThomas: 5.0Durham: 2 targets
Target share trendThomas: SteadyDurham: Steady
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterThomas: TE64 (best)Durham: TE65
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.