Williams
RB · LA vs PHI
Proj pts
14.4pts
market
Dobbins
RB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
J.K. Dobbins or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyren Williams. Bench J.K. Dobbins. Kyren Williams leads at 14.4. J.K. Dobbins is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Crowd: started Williams 97%
Highlights
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Positive game scriptFavored
- High floor12.7 floor
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Reliable66% consistency
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Kyren Williams
Start Kyren Williams — projects 14.4, an even matchup vs PHI, with a rising role.
Kyren Williams projects 14.4 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: Kyren Williams is start this week.
Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (14.4 vs 13.8); Floor (12.7 vs 5.6); Ceiling (20.4 vs 19.0); Touch share (35% vs 19%); Opportunity score (13.9 vs 11.8); Implied team total (23.3 vs 22.3); Last 3 avg (17.7 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (16.0 vs 6.0); vs season (+1.0 vs -2.4); Boom rate (6% vs 0%); Bust rate (6% vs 10%); Touches / game (17.4 vs 16.4); Target share (8% vs 5%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (13.9 vs 11.8); Snap share (68% vs 51%); Goal line carries (20 vs 7); Red zone carries (61 vs 20); Implied total (23.3 vs 22.3).
Why J.K. Dobbins
Sit J.K. Dobbins — projects 13.8, a run-funnel matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.
J.K. Dobbins projects 13.8 points on a 5.6–19.0 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against SF. Usage: carries / game at 15.3. Net: J.K. Dobbins is a bench this week.
Working for Dobbins: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (66% consistency).
Working against Dobbins: Committee back (19% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Dobbins leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Consistency (66% vs 62%); Carries / game (15.3 vs 15.2); Yards per carry (5.0 vs 4.8); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-).
Recent form
Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).
J.K. Dobbins's last 5 games: PPR points 6.9, 9.4, 3.6, 3.6, 6.3 (oldest to newest).
Williams's worst of these 5 (11.1) beats Dobbins's best (9.4).
Williams has already beaten Dobbins's 13.8 projection in 4 of his 5; Dobbins has beaten Williams's 14.4 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.3, spread -3.0.
J.K. Dobbins (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Williams's edge is 0.6 points (14.4 to 13.8). Dobbins's ceiling (19) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Dobbins flips it. Williams's floor (12.7) sits under Dobbins's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Opportunity score
- Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Touch share trend
- The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Vacated touches
- Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.