Scoring

2026Week 4PPRStart 1recent form incl. 2025

#1 Start

Croskey-Merritt

RB · WAS vs IND

Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

13.5pts

market

Mod Conf

Bench

Harvey

RB · DEN vs SF

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

11.8pts

market

Mod Conf

#1 START

Croskey-Merritt

RB · WAS vs IND

Kickoff Sun 9:30 AM

Projected points

13.5pts

market

Moderate Confidence

BENCH

Harvey

RB · DEN vs SF

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM

Projected points

11.8pts

market

Moderate Confidence

Jacory Croskey-Merritt or RJ Harvey: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Bench RJ Harvey. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads at 13.5. RJ Harvey is the first one out, 1.7 short.

Crowd: started Croskey-Merritt 31% · Harvey 30%

Highlights

Jacory Croskey-MerrittStart

RB · WAS vs IND

Cons

Committee back24% of touches
Negative game scriptTrailing

RJ HarveyBench

RB · DEN vs SF

Pros

Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Spike upside21.7 ceiling
Big-play upside31% boom weeks

Cons

Below your start line1.7 pts short
Committee back23% of touches

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

	Croskey-MerrittStart	HarveyBench
Projection	13.5	11.8
Floor	5.1	8.1
Ceiling	16.3	21.7
Touch share	24%	23%
Opportunity score	7.7	10.4
Matchup grade(recency weighted)	C-	B+
Implied team total	22.0	22.3

	Croskey-MerrittStart	HarveyBench
Last 3 avg	7.9	7.7
Last 5 avg	9.8	12.8
vs season	+1.5	-0.1
Trend	Steady	Cooling
Touch share trend	Rising	Cooling
Consistency	20%	40%
Boom rate	23%	31%
Bust rate	38%	25%
Games since injury	None	None

	Croskey-MerrittStart	HarveyBench
Carries / game	10.3	8.6
Touches / game	10.8	11.4
Touch share	24%	23%
Target share	3%	10%
Opportunity score(exp pts)	7.7	10.4
Yards per carry	4.6	3.7
Snap share	40%	42%
Goal line carries	13	10
Red zone carries	32	31
Vacated touches this week	None	None

	Croskey-MerrittStart	HarveyBench
Grade vs RB(recency weighted)	C-	B+
Defense funnel	Pass	Neutral
Implied total	22.0	22.3
Spread	+3.5	+3.0
Game script projection	Trailing	Trailing
Opp rush yds allowed	29th	15th
Opp sacks / game	2.3	2.0
Opp takeaways / game	0.3	0.7
Personnel status	Committee	Committee
Opp starters out	None	Williams (DE)
Weather(when it matters)	not shown	not shown
Roof / surface	Open · grass	Open · grass
Rest / schedule	Normal	Normal
Opp pace	12th	31st

Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET

Why Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt — projects 13.5, an even matchup vs IND.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects 13.5 points on a 5.1–16.3 range. The matchup grades as neutral against IND. Usage: carries / game at 10.3. Net: Jacory Croskey-Merritt is start this week.

Working against Croskey-Merritt: Committee back (24% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).

Where Croskey-Merritt leads the head-to-head: Projection (13.5 vs 11.8); Touch share (24% vs 23%); Last 3 avg (7.9 vs 7.7); vs season (+1.5 vs -0.1); Carries / game (10.3 vs 8.6); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 3.7); Goal line carries (13 vs 10); Red zone carries (32 vs 31).

Why RJ Harvey

Sit RJ Harvey — projects 11.8, a run-funnel matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.

RJ Harvey projects 11.8 points on a 8.1–21.7 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against SF. Usage: carries / game at 8.6. Net: RJ Harvey is a bench this week.

Working for Harvey: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Spike upside (21.7 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).

Working against Harvey: Below your start line (1.7 pts short), Committee back (23% of touches).

Where Harvey leads the head-to-head: Floor (8.1 vs 5.1); Ceiling (21.7 vs 16.3); Opportunity score (10.4 vs 7.7); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C-); Implied team total (22.3 vs 22.0); Last 5 avg (12.8 vs 9.8); Consistency (40% vs 20%); Boom rate (31% vs 23%); Bust rate (25% vs 38%); Touches / game (11.4 vs 10.8); Target share (10% vs 3%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (10.4 vs 7.7); Snap share (42% vs 40%); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (B+ vs C-); Implied total (22.3 vs 22.0).

Recent form

Jacory Croskey-Merritt's last 5 games: PPR points 22.5, 2.9, 12.6, 5.8, 5.3 (oldest to newest).

RJ Harvey's last 5 games: PPR points 22.1, 18.6, 4.3, 8.1, 10.7 (oldest to newest).

Croskey-Merritt has already beaten Harvey's 11.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Harvey has beaten Croskey-Merritt's 13.5 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.

Matchup

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.0, spread +3.5.

RJ Harvey (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.

What flips it

Croskey-Merritt's edge is 1.7 points (13.5 to 11.8). Harvey's ceiling (21.7) clears Croskey-Merritt's projection, so a big game from Harvey flips it. Croskey-Merritt's floor (5.1) sits under Harvey's projection, so a quiet game from Croskey-Merritt flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers

Confidence in the call: How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
Floor: The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
Ceiling: The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
Opportunity score: Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.
Matchup grade: The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
Implied team total: The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
Trend: The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
Touch share trend: The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.
Consistency: The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
Boom rate: The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
Bust rate: The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
Vacated touches: Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.
Defense funnel: Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
Game script projection: The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Jacory Croskey-Merritt comparisons

More RJ Harvey comparisons

This week's toughest calls

Croskey-MerrittStart

HarveyBench

Projection

13.5

11.8

Floor

5.1

8.1

Ceiling

16.3

21.7

Touch share

24%

23%

Opportunity score

7.7

10.4

Matchup grade(recency weighted)

C-

B+

Implied team total

22.0

22.3

Why Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt — projects 13.5, an even matchup vs IND.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects 13.5 points on a 5.1–16.3 range. The matchup grades as neutral against IND. Usage: carries / game at 10.3. Net: Jacory Croskey-Merritt is start this week.

Working against Croskey-Merritt: Committee back (24% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).

Why RJ Harvey

Sit RJ Harvey — projects 11.8, a run-funnel matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.

RJ Harvey projects 11.8 points on a 8.1–21.7 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against SF. Usage: carries / game at 8.6. Net: RJ Harvey is a bench this week.

Working for Harvey: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Spike upside (21.7 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).

Working against Harvey: Below your start line (1.7 pts short), Committee back (23% of touches).

Recent form

Jacory Croskey-Merritt's last 5 games: PPR points 22.5, 2.9, 12.6, 5.8, 5.3 (oldest to newest).

RJ Harvey's last 5 games: PPR points 22.1, 18.6, 4.3, 8.1, 10.7 (oldest to newest).

Croskey-Merritt has already beaten Harvey's 11.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Harvey has beaten Croskey-Merritt's 13.5 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.

How to read these numbers

Confidence in the call

How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.

Floor

The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Ceiling

The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Opportunity score

Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.

Matchup grade

The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.

Implied team total

The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.

Trend

The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.

Touch share trend

The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.

Consistency

The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.

Boom rate

The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.

Bust rate

The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.

Vacated touches

Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.

Defense funnel

Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.

Game script projection

The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.