New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Williams

WR · DET vs MIN

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points11.0pts

First out

Downs

WR · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Jameson Williams or Josh Downs: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Jameson Williams gets the nod over Josh Downs.

Ahead by: +0.7pts; over Downs
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started: 86%; of leagues

Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Downs

The case for Downs is more of the targets (20% to 18%) and more of the red zone targets (23% to 15%).

Flips if

Start Josh Downs instead if you want the easier matchup (the 4th softest defense for receivers, while Williams faces the toughest defense for receivers).

Risk

The risk: Williams faces the Vikings, the toughest defense for receivers.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

WilliamsToss-upWR · DET vs MINUsually 14.0−2.9pts this week

Helps him

89%snapsHe is on the field for 89% of snaps.
+6.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 6.4 points above his season average.

Hurts him

−1.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.38 touchdowns, below his usual 0.67.
−1.0ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 51.5 receiving yards, below his usual 61.2.
MINvs WRsEdgeMIN is the toughest defense for receivers.

DownsFirst outWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week

Helps him

+1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
+1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection11.010.3

TD pointsof the projection2.3Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.38Our estimate

Projected team points24.818.3

Red zone targetsper game1.20.7

Role

Snap share89%82%

Usage worthpts11.811.4

Target share18%20%

Targets / game6.36.6

Air yards share32%29%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAboveBelow

WOPR0.500.50

RZ target share15%23%

Catch rate61%57%

Separation2.7 yds2.4 yds

YAC over expected+0.5+0.7

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 11.8Scored 14.0Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2

Vacated targets this week0.03.5

Inside 10 target share18%0%

Range

Floor6.46.2

Ceiling18.616.5

Points from TDssteadier when lower29%0%

Big weeks (20+ pts)22%0%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better18%43%

SteadinessSteady±8.0 ptsVery steady±4.0 pts · 7 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmFA

Game scriptExpected to leadExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.81.5

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed2nd (tough)30th (soft)

Starting QBGoff (Active)Jones (Active)

Roof / surfaceDometurfOpengrass

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace26th (slow)23rd (slow)

Opp deep targets allowed / game2.37th (tough)4.027th (soft)

Opp catch rate allowed58%8th (tough)65%24th (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg20.36.7

Last 5 avg15.07.5

vs season+6.4 (Rising)−1.5 (Cooling)

Yards per route run1.791.39

Receiving aDOT14.910.7

Target share trendSteadySteady

Crowd

Started in leagues87%41%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR27WR32

Yards linereceiving51.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

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