Downs
WR · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate
Concepcion
WR · CLE @ PIT
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points11.1pts
Toss-up
Bench
Josh Downs or KC Concepcion: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Josh Downs gets the nod over KC Concepcion.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 41%
- of leagues
Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Concepcion
The case for Concepcion is surer hands (67% of his targets caught to 57%) and a safer floor (7.1 to 6.2).
Flips if
Start KC Concepcion instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (17% of his games to 0%).
Risk
The risk: Downs caught 2 for 18 yards last week (3.8 points).
Highlights
DownsToss-upWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
- 43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.
ConcepcionFirst outWR · CLE @ PITUsually 10.2+0.8pts this week
Helps him
- +1.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.25 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
Hurts him
- −0.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 46.0 receiving yards, below his usual 51.7.
- 7th toughestper targetEdgePIT allows plenty of WR chances because receivers see plenty of targets on them; per target they’re tough (1.60 pts, 7th toughest).
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionDowns: 10.3Concepcion: 11.1 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionDowns: Our estimateConcepcion: 1.5
Expected TDsthis weekDowns: Our estimateConcepcion: 0.25
Projected team pointsDowns: 18.3 (best)Concepcion: 18.0
Goal line carriesper gameDowns: 0.0Concepcion: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameDowns: 0.1Concepcion: 0.3 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameDowns: 0.7 (best)Concepcion: 0.4
Role
Snap shareDowns: 82% (best)Concepcion: 70%
Usage worthptsDowns: 11.4 (best)Concepcion: 11.0
Touch shareDowns: 8%Concepcion: 12% (best)
Target shareDowns: 20%Concepcion: 22% (best)
Touches / gameDowns: 3.9Concepcion: 5.6 (best)
Targets / gameDowns: 6.6 (best)Concepcion: 6.4
Air yards shareDowns: 29% (best)Concepcion: 22%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsDowns: BelowConcepcion: Below
WOPRDowns: 0.50 (best)Concepcion: 0.48
RZ target shareDowns: 23% (best)Concepcion: 17%
Catch rateDowns: 57%Concepcion: 67% (best)
SeparationDowns: 2.4 ydsConcepcion: 3.2 yds (best)
YAC over expectedDowns: +0.7Concepcion: +1.3 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredDowns: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2Concepcion: Earned by usage 11.0Scored 9.0
Rush yards / gameDowns: 1.0Concepcion: 4.9 (best)
Points from rushingDowns: 1%Concepcion: 5%
Vacated targets this weekDowns: 3.5 (best)Concepcion: 0.0
High value touches / gameDowns: 3.9Concepcion: 4.4 (best)
Goal line carry shareDowns: 0%Concepcion: 0%
Red zone touches / gameDowns: 0.9 (best)Concepcion: 0.7
Rush success rateDowns: 100% (best)Concepcion: 33%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Downs: 0%Concepcion: 0%
Inside 10 target shareDowns: 0%Concepcion: 0%
Rushing points / gameDowns: 0.1 pts / gameConcepcion: 0.5 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorDowns: 0.0 pts / gameConcepcion: 0.0 pts / game
Range
FloorDowns: 6.2Concepcion: 7.1 (best)
CeilingDowns: 16.5Concepcion: 17.1 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerDowns: 0%Concepcion: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Downs: 0%Concepcion: 17% (best)
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterDowns: 43%Concepcion: 17% (best)
SteadinessDowns: Very steady (best)±4.0 pts · 7 gamesConcepcion: Up & down±6.9 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionDowns: A (best)2026, 6 gmConcepcion: B-2026, 7 gm
Game scriptDowns: Expected to trailConcepcion: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterDowns: 1.5 (best)Concepcion: 1.6
Defense funnelDowns: NeutralConcepcion: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedDowns: 30th (soft) (best)Concepcion: 13th (average)
Starting QBDowns: Jones (Active)Concepcion: Watson (Active)
Opp defender outDowns: None listedConcepcion: Joseph-Day (DT)
Roof / surfacegrassDowns: OpenConcepcion: Open
Rest / scheduleDowns: NormalConcepcion: Normal
Opp paceDowns: 23rd (slow)Concepcion: 13th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameDowns: 4.0 (best)27th (soft)Concepcion: 3.319th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedDowns: 65% (best)24th (soft)Concepcion: 61%14th (average)
Opp rush yds allowedDowns: 1st (tough)Concepcion: 7th (tough) (best)
Opp stuff rateDowns: 17% (best)19th (average)Concepcion: 23%3rd (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedDowns: 3.01st (tough)Concepcion: 3.6 (best)4th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgDowns: 6.7Concepcion: 10.9 (best)
Last 5 avgDowns: 7.5Concepcion: 9.4 (best)
vs seasonDowns: −1.5 (Cooling)Concepcion: +1.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryDowns: 1 carryConcepcion: 3.8
Carries / gameDowns: 0.1Concepcion: 1.3 (best)
Yards per route runDowns: 1.39Concepcion: 1.91 (best)
Receiving aDOTDowns: 10.7Concepcion: 7.6
Target share trendDowns: SteadyConcepcion: Left Week 5 hurt
Crowd
Started in leaguesDowns: 41%Concepcion: 59% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterDowns: WR32Concepcion: WR26 (best)
Yards linereceivingDowns: Our estimateConcepcion: 46.0
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.