Allen
WR · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points11.6pts
Downs
WR · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Josh Downs or Keenan Allen: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Keenan Allen gets the nod over Josh Downs.
- Ahead by
- +1.3pts
- over Downs
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 58%
- of leagues
Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Josh Downs instead if you want more of the downfield throws (29% of the air yards to 20%).
Risk
The risk: Allen caught 3 for 31 yards last week (6.1 points).
Highlights
AllenToss-upWR · IND @ JAXUsually 10.1+1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +1.2pts2 linesCatches 5.5 (usual 4.8) and touchdowns 0.25 (usual 0.17) both sit above his usual.
Hurts him
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
DownsFirst outWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
- 43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionAllen: 11.6 (best)Downs: 10.3
TD pointsof the projectionAllen: 1.5Downs: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekAllen: 0.25Downs: Our estimate
Projected team pointsAllen: 18.3Downs: 18.3
Red zone targetsper gameAllen: 0.7Downs: 0.7
Role
Snap shareAllen: 59%Downs: 82% (best)
Usage worthptsAllen: 11.4Downs: 11.4
Target shareAllen: 21% (best)Downs: 20%
Targets / gameAllen: 7.2 (best)Downs: 6.6
Air yards shareAllen: 20%Downs: 29% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAllen: In lineDowns: Below
WOPRAllen: 0.45Downs: 0.50 (best)
RZ target shareAllen: 20%Downs: 23% (best)
Catch rateAllen: 67% (best)Downs: 57%
SeparationAllen: 2.4 ydsDowns: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedAllen: +0.4Downs: +0.7 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredAllen: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 10.1Downs: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2
Vacated targets this weekAllen: 3.5Downs: 3.5
Inside 10 target shareAllen: 40% (best)Downs: 0%
Range
FloorAllen: 7.4 (best)Downs: 6.2
CeilingAllen: 19.1 (best)Downs: 16.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerAllen: 10%Downs: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Allen: 0%Downs: 0%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterAllen: 33% (best)Downs: 43%
SteadinessAllen: Steady±6.3 pts · 6 gamesDowns: Very steady (best)±4.0 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmAllen: ADowns: A
Game scriptAllen: Expected to trailDowns: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterAllen: 1.5Downs: 1.5
Defense funnelAllen: NeutralDowns: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedAllen: 30th (soft)Downs: 30th (soft)
Starting QBAllen: Jones (Active)Downs: Jones (Active)
Roof / surfacegrassAllen: OpenDowns: Open
Rest / scheduleAllen: NormalDowns: Normal
Opp paceAllen: 23rd (slow)Downs: 23rd (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / game27th (soft)Allen: 4.0Downs: 4.0
Opp catch rate allowed24th (soft)Allen: 65%Downs: 65%
Form
Last 3 avgAllen: 10.6 (best)Downs: 6.7
Last 5 avgAllen: 10.3 (best)Downs: 7.5
vs seasonAllen: +0.5 (Steady) (best)Downs: −1.5 (Cooling)
Yards per route runAllen: 1.71 (best)Downs: 1.39
Receiving aDOTAllen: 7.4Downs: 10.7
Target share trendAllen: SteadyDowns: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesAllen: 58% (best)Downs: 41%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterAllen: WR23 (best)Downs: WR32
Yards linereceivingAllen: 45.5Downs: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.