Monangai
RB · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
15.7pts
market
Jacobs
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
14.8pts
opportunity
Josh Jacobs or Kyle Monangai: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Kyle Monangai over Josh Jacobs by 0.9. Kyle Monangai leads at 15.7. Josh Jacobs is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Positive game scriptFavored
Cons
- Committee back22% of touches
Pros
- Goal-line back1.5 GL carries/g
- Positive game scriptFavored
- High floor11.5 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Monangai 25%, Jacobs 14%.
Latest game on the card: Monangai 3.1, Jacobs 1.3 (PPR points).
Why Kyle Monangai
Start Kyle Monangai — projects 15.7, a run-funnel matchup vs NYJ.
Kyle Monangai projects 15.7 points on a 7.2–17.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYJ. Usage: carries / game at 9.9. Net: start Kyle Monangai this week.
Working for Monangai: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Positive game script (Favored).
Working against Monangai: Committee back (22% of touches).
Where Monangai leads the head-to-head: Projection (15.7 vs 14.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.0); Last 3 avg (10.4 vs 9.8); vs season (-1.1 vs -2.0); Boom rate (25% vs 14%); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 4.0).
Why Josh Jacobs
Sit Josh Jacobs — projects 14.8, an even matchup vs TB, but the role is cooling.
Josh Jacobs projects 14.8 points on a 11.5–19.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 15.6. Net: bench Josh Jacobs this week.
Working for Jacobs: Goal-line back (1.5 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (11.5 floor).
Where Jacobs leads the head-to-head: Floor (11.5 vs 7.2); Ceiling (19.9 vs 17.4); Touch share (33% vs 22%); Opportunity score (14.1 vs 8.9); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 9.0); Consistency (50% vs 35%); Bust rate (14% vs 25%); Carries / game (15.6 vs 9.9); Touches / game (18.0 vs 11.0); Target share (10% vs 6%); Snap share (59% vs 41%); Goal line carries (22 vs 13); Red zone carries (58 vs 42); Rest / schedule (9 days rest vs Short week (5d)).
Recent form
Kyle Monangai's last 5 games: PPR points 7.7, 5.9, 20.4, 7.8, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Josh Jacobs's last 5 games: PPR points 10.1, 17.2, 23.2, 4.8, 1.3 (oldest to newest).
Monangai has already beaten Jacobs's 14.8 projection in 1 of his 5; Jacobs has beaten Monangai's 15.7 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyle Monangai (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Josh Jacobs (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Monangai's edge is 0.9 points (15.7 to 14.8). Jacobs's ceiling (19.9) clears Monangai's projection, so a big game from Jacobs flips it. Monangai's floor (7.2) sits under Jacobs's projection, so a quiet game from Monangai flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Josh Jacobs comparisons
- Josh Jacobs or Rhamondre Stevenson14.8 · 15.1
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt or Josh Jacobs14.4 · 14.8
- Jadarian Price or Josh Jacobs14.0 · 14.8
- Josh Jacobs or RJ Harvey14.8 · 13.8
More Kyle Monangai comparisons
- Kyle Monangai or Rhamondre Stevenson15.7 · 15.1
- Braelon Allen or Kyle Monangai16.7 · 15.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or Kyle Monangai16.8 · 15.7
- Bucky Irving or Kyle Monangai16.8 · 15.7
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)