Harvey
RB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
11.8pts
market
Monangai
RB · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
9.9pts
market
Kyle Monangai or RJ Harvey: who should I start in Week 4?
Start RJ Harvey. Bench Kyle Monangai. RJ Harvey leads at 11.8. Kyle Monangai is the first one out, 1.9 short.
Crowd: started Harvey 30%
Highlights
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Spike upside21.7 ceiling
- Big-play upside31% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back23% of touches
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Positive game scriptFavored
Cons
- Below your start line1.9 pts short
- Committee back22% of touches
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why RJ Harvey
Start RJ Harvey — projects 11.8, a run-funnel matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.
RJ Harvey projects 11.8 points on a 8.1–21.7 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against SF. Usage: carries / game at 8.6. Net: RJ Harvey is start this week.
Working for Harvey: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Spike upside (21.7 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).
Working against Harvey: Committee back (23% of touches), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Harvey leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.8 vs 9.9); Floor (8.1 vs 7.2); Ceiling (21.7 vs 17.4); Touch share (23% vs 22%); Opportunity score (10.4 vs 8.9); Last 5 avg (12.8 vs 9.0); vs season (-0.1 vs -1.1); Consistency (40% vs 35%); Boom rate (31% vs 25%); Touches / game (11.4 vs 11.0); Target share (10% vs 6%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (10.4 vs 8.9); Snap share (42% vs 41%).
Why Kyle Monangai
Sit Kyle Monangai — projects 9.9, a run-funnel matchup vs NYJ.
Kyle Monangai projects 9.9 points on a 7.2–17.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYJ. Usage: carries / game at 9.9. Net: Kyle Monangai is a bench this week.
Working for Monangai: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Positive game script (Favored).
Working against Monangai: Below your start line (1.9 pts short), Committee back (22% of touches).
Where Monangai leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B+); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.3); Last 3 avg (10.4 vs 7.7); Carries / game (9.9 vs 8.6); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 3.7); Goal line carries (13 vs 10); Red zone carries (42 vs 31); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (A+ vs B+); Implied total (23.5 vs 22.3).
Recent form
RJ Harvey's last 5 games: PPR points 22.1, 18.6, 4.3, 8.1, 10.7 (oldest to newest).
Kyle Monangai's last 5 games: PPR points 7.7, 5.9, 20.4, 7.8, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Harvey has already beaten Monangai's 9.9 projection in 3 of his 5; Monangai has beaten Harvey's 11.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
RJ Harvey (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Kyle Monangai (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Harvey's edge is 1.9 points (11.8 to 9.9). Monangai's ceiling (17.4) clears Harvey's projection, so a big game from Monangai flips it. Harvey's floor (8.1) sits under Monangai's projection, so a quiet game from Harvey flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Opportunity score
- Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Touch share trend
- The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Vacated touches
- Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.