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Scoring
#1 Start

Black

RB · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.9pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Miller

RB · NO vs ATL

Mon 8:15 PM

Proj pts

6.6pts

market

Lower Conf

Kaelon Black or Kendre Miller: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Kaelon Black. Bench Kendre Miller. Kaelon Black leads at 6.9. Kendre Miller is the first one out, 0.3 short.

Availability & news

  • Kendre Miller

    Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.(rotowire, Sep 24, 2026)

Highlights

Kaelon BlackStart
RB · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Big-play upside50% boom weeks

Cons

  • Committee back19% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Kendre MillerBench
RB · NO vs ATL

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored

Cons

  • Committee back6% of touches
  • Shaky floor5.7 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

BlackStart
MillerBench
Projection6.96.6
Floor—5.7
Ceiling—10.4
Touch share19%6%
Opportunity score6.35.3
Matchup grade(recency weighted)FC
Implied team total25.325.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Black 19%, Miller 6%.

Miller: “Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.” — RotoWire, Sep 24, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Miller 3.9 (PPR points).

Why Kaelon Black

Start Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: start Kaelon Black this week.

Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).

Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).

Where Black leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 6.6); Touch share (19% vs 6%); Opportunity score (6.3 vs 5.3); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Boom rate (50% vs 25%); Carries / game (8.3 vs 6.7); Touches / game (8.7 vs 7.4); Opportunity score (exp pts) (6.3 vs 5.3); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 4.1); Snap share (30% vs 24%).

Why Kendre Miller

Sit Kendre Miller — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs ATL.

Kendre Miller projects 6.6 points on a 5.7–10.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ATL. Usage: carries / game at 6.7. Net: bench Kendre Miller this week.

Working for Miller: Positive game script (Favored).

Working against Miller: Committee back (6% of touches), Shaky floor (5.7 floor).

Where Miller leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs F); Implied team total (25.8 vs 25.3); Last 3 avg (4.5 vs 4.1); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 4.1); Consistency (54% vs 48%); Bust rate (0% vs 50%); Red zone carries (5 vs 4); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (C vs F); Implied total (25.8 vs 25.3).

Recent form

Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Kendre Miller's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 4.2, 0.7, 9, 3.9 (oldest to newest).

Black has already beaten Miller's 6.6 projection in 1 of his 3; Miller has beaten Black's 6.9 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

Kendre Miller (NO) faces ATL, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

This week's toughest calls