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Scoring
#1 Start

Lloyd

RB · GB vs TB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

7.1pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Black

RB · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.9pts

market

Lower Conf

Kaelon Black or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean MarShawn Lloyd over Kaelon Black by 0.2. MarShawn Lloyd leads at 7.1. Kaelon Black is the first one out, 0.2 short.

Highlights

MarShawn LloydStart
RB · GB vs TB

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back1% of touches
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor
Kaelon BlackBench
RB · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Big-play upside50% boom weeks

Cons

  • Committee back19% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · F vs RB

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2024 season (not enough games played this season yet).

LloydStart
BlackBench
Projection7.16.9
Floor3.6—
Ceiling9.8—
Touch share1%19%
Opportunity score5.36.3
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-F
Implied team total21.525.3

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Lloyd 1%, Black 19%.

Latest game on the card: Lloyd 3.8 (PPR points).

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Start MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.

MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: start MarShawn Lloyd this week.

Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.1 vs 6.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs F); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 4.1); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 4.1); Consistency (100% vs 48%); Bust rate (0% vs 50%); Target share (8% vs 2%).

Why Kaelon Black

Sit Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: bench Kaelon Black this week.

Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).

Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).

Where Black leads the head-to-head: Touch share (19% vs 1%); Opportunity score (6.3 vs 5.3); Implied team total (25.3 vs 21.5); Boom rate (50% vs 0%); Carries / game (8.3 vs 6.0); Touches / game (8.7 vs 7.0); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 2.5); Snap share (30% vs 14%); Red zone carries (4 vs 0).

Recent form

MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Lloyd has already beaten Black's 6.9 projection in 1 of his 4; Black has beaten Lloyd's 7.1 in 1 of his 3.

Matchup

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.

Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

This week's toughest calls