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Scoring
#1 Start

Black

RB · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.9pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Harris

RB · NYG vs ARI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf

Kaelon Black or Najee Harris: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Kaelon Black. Bench Najee Harris. Kaelon Black leads at 6.9. Najee Harris is the first one out, 0.1 short.

Highlights

Kaelon BlackStart
RB · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Big-play upside50% boom weeks

Cons

  • Committee back19% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Najee HarrisBench
RB · NYG vs ARI

Pros

  • Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back2% of touches
  • Shaky floor5.5 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

BlackStart
HarrisBench
Projection6.96.8
Floor—5.5
Ceiling—12.4
Touch share19%2%
Opportunity score6.34.6
Matchup grade(recency weighted)FA
Implied team total25.321.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Black 19%, Harris 2%.

Latest game on the card: Harris 5.2 (PPR points).

Why Kaelon Black

Start Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: start Kaelon Black this week.

Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).

Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).

Where Black leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 6.8); Touch share (19% vs 2%); Opportunity score (6.3 vs 4.6); Implied team total (25.3 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (4.1 vs 2.9); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 3.5); vs season (+0.0 vs -2.7); Boom rate (50% vs 0%); Carries / game (8.3 vs 5.0); Touches / game (8.7 vs 6.0); Opportunity score (exp pts) (6.3 vs 4.6); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 4.1); Snap share (30% vs 22%); Red zone carries (4 vs 1); Implied total (25.3 vs 21.5).

Why Najee Harris

Sit Najee Harris — projects 6.8, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.

Najee Harris projects 6.8 points on a 5.5–12.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 5.0. Net: bench Najee Harris this week.

Working for Harris: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Harris: Committee back (2% of touches), Shaky floor (5.5 floor).

Where Harris leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs F); Consistency (100% vs 48%); Bust rate (0% vs 50%); Target share (3% vs 2%); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (A vs F).

Recent form

Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Najee Harris's last 5 games: PPR points 2, 6.8, 2.8, 0.6, 5.2 (oldest to newest).

Black has already beaten Harris's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 3; Harris has beaten Black's 6.9 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

Najee Harris (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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