Gordon
RB · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Black
RB · SF vs DEN
Proj pts
6.9pts
market
Kaelon Black or Ollie Gordon II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ollie Gordon II over Kaelon Black by 0.7. Ollie Gordon II leads at 7.6. Kaelon Black is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: 44% of managers started Gordon.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside40% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back10% of touches
- Low team total14.0 team total
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Big-play upside50% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Gordon 19, Black 4.
Latest game on the card: Gordon 14.5 (PPR points).
Why Ollie Gordon II
Start Ollie Gordon II — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs MIN, with a rising role.
Ollie Gordon II projects 7.6 points on a 3.6–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: carries / game at 4.1. Net: start Ollie Gordon II this week.
Working for Gordon: Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).
Working against Gordon: Committee back (10% of touches), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Gordon leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 6.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs F); Last 3 avg (5.8 vs 4.1); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 4).
Why Kaelon Black
Sit Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.
Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: bench Kaelon Black this week.
Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).
Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Black leads the head-to-head: Touch share (19% vs 10%); Opportunity score (6.3 vs 3.3); Implied team total (25.3 vs 14.0); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 3.8); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Consistency (48% vs 11%); Boom rate (50% vs 40%); Carries / game (8.3 vs 4.1); Touches / game (8.7 vs 4.5); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 2.8); Snap share (30% vs 22%).
Recent form
Ollie Gordon II's last 5 games: PPR points 0.9, 1, 2.1, 0.7, 14.5 (oldest to newest).
Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Gordon has already beaten Black's 6.9 projection in 1 of his 5; Black has beaten Gordon's 7.6 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ollie Gordon II (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)