Black
RB · SF vs DEN
Proj pts
6.9pts
market
Johnson
RB · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Kaelon Black or Ty Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kaelon Black. Bench Ty Johnson. Kaelon Black leads at 6.9. Ty Johnson is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Black and Johnson are effectively tied on projection — Black gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Big-play upside50% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Black 4, Johnson 19.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 9 (PPR points).
Why Kaelon Black
Start Kaelon Black — projects 6.9, a tough matchup vs DEN.
Kaelon Black projects 6.9 points. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: carries / game at 8.3. Net: start Kaelon Black this week.
Working for Black: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (50% boom weeks).
Working against Black: Committee back (19% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Black leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 6.8); Touch share (19% vs 8%); Opportunity score (6.3 vs 4.6); Consistency (48% vs 20%); Boom rate (50% vs 14%); Carries / game (8.3 vs 2.9); Touches / game (8.7 vs 4.4); Opportunity score (exp pts) (6.3 vs 4.6); Yards per carry (4.3 vs 4.0).
Why Ty Johnson
Sit Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: bench Ty Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (27.8 vs 25.3); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 4.1); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 4.1); vs season (+0.9 vs +0.0); Bust rate (29% vs 50%); Target share (7% vs 2%); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 4); Implied total (27.8 vs 25.3).
Recent form
Kaelon Black's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 2.5, 8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).
Black has already beaten Johnson's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 3; Johnson has beaten Black's 6.9 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kaelon Black (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.
Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Tony Pollard or Omarion Hampton12.1 · 12.1
- Quinshon Judkins or Alvin Kamara17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten17.1 · 17.0
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey28.4 · 28.2
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)