nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Lloyd

RB · GB vs TB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

7.1pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Miller

RB · NO vs ATL

Mon 8:15 PM

Proj pts

6.6pts

market

Mod Conf

Kendre Miller or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean MarShawn Lloyd over Kendre Miller by 0.5. MarShawn Lloyd leads at 7.1. Kendre Miller is the first one out, 0.5 short.

Availability & news

  • Kendre Miller

    Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.(rotowire, Sep 24, 2026)

Highlights

MarShawn LloydStart
RB · GB vs TB

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back1% of touches
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor
Kendre MillerBench
RB · NO vs ATL

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored

Cons

  • Committee back6% of touches
  • Shaky floor5.7 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2024 season (not enough games played this season yet).

LloydStart
MillerBench
Projection7.16.6
Floor3.65.7
Ceiling9.810.4
Touch share1%6%
Opportunity score5.35.3
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-C
Implied team total21.525.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Lloyd 1%, Miller 6%.

Miller: “Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.” — RotoWire, Sep 24, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Lloyd 3.8, Miller 3.9 (PPR points).

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Start MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.

MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: start MarShawn Lloyd this week.

Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.1 vs 6.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 4.5); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Consistency (100% vs 54%); Target share (8% vs 2%).

Why Kendre Miller

Sit Kendre Miller — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs ATL.

Kendre Miller projects 6.6 points on a 5.7–10.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ATL. Usage: carries / game at 6.7. Net: bench Kendre Miller this week.

Working for Miller: Positive game script (Favored).

Working against Miller: Committee back (6% of touches), Shaky floor (5.7 floor).

Where Miller leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.7 vs 3.6); Ceiling (10.4 vs 9.8); Touch share (6% vs 1%); Implied team total (25.8 vs 21.5); Boom rate (25% vs 0%); Carries / game (6.7 vs 6.0); Touches / game (7.4 vs 7.0); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 2.5); Snap share (24% vs 14%); Red zone carries (5 vs 0).

Recent form

MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Kendre Miller's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 4.2, 0.7, 9, 3.9 (oldest to newest).

Lloyd has already beaten Miller's 6.6 projection in 1 of his 4; Miller has beaten Lloyd's 7.1 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.

Kendre Miller (NO) faces ATL, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

What flips it

Lloyd's edge is 0.5 points (7.1 to 6.6). Miller's ceiling (10.4) clears Lloyd's projection, so a big game from Miller flips it. Lloyd's floor (3.6) sits under Miller's projection, so a quiet game from Lloyd flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

This week's toughest calls