Bourne
WR · ARI @ DAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points8.5pts
Lemon
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET
Projected points8.9ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Kendrick Bourne or Makai Lemon: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Kendrick Bourne gets the nod over Makai Lemon.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Lemon's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Lemon
The case for Lemon is more of the targets (17% to 14%) and a bigger receiving workload (0.34 to 0.27).
Flips if
Start Makai Lemon instead if you want more of the snaps (75% to 58%).
Risk
The risk: Bourne caught 3 for 9 yards last week (3.9 points).
Highlights
BourneToss-upWR · ARI @ DALUsually 6.9+1.6pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.27 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
Hurts him
- 14%targetsHe draws only 14% of his team’s targets.
- 2nd softestper targetEdgeDAL allows few WR chances because few passes go to receivers against them; per target they’re soft (2.06 pts, 2nd softest).
LemonFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 7.1+1.7pts this week
Helps him
- +2.2ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
- +4.2last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.2 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 5.2floorA quiet week could drop to about 5.2 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBourne: 8.5Lemon: 8.9 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionBourne: 1.6Lemon: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBourne: 0.27Lemon: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBourne: 23.8 (best)Lemon: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameBourne: 1.0 (best)Lemon: 0.1
Role
Snap shareBourne: 58%Lemon: 75% (best)
Usage worthptsBourne: 8.7 (best)Lemon: 7.8
Target shareBourne: 14%Lemon: 17% (best)
Targets / gameBourne: 5.1Lemon: 5.1
Air yards shareBourne: 10%Lemon: 11% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBourne: BelowLemon: 1 RZ target
WOPRBourne: 0.27Lemon: 0.34 (best)
RZ target shareBourne: 13% (best)Lemon: 6%
Catch rateBourne: 69%Lemon: 69%
SeparationBourne: 2.7 ydsLemon: 2.7 yds
YAC over expectedBourne: −0.7Lemon: −0.4 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBourne: Earned by usage 8.7Scored 6.9Lemon: Earned by usage 7.8Scored 7.1
Vacated targets this weekBourne: 3.3 (best)Lemon: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareBourne: 6%Lemon: 11% (best)
Range
FloorBourne: 4.6Lemon: 5.2 (best)
CeilingBourne: 14.5 (best)Lemon: 13.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBourne: 0%Lemon: 12%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Bourne: 0%Lemon: 0%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterBourne: 57% (best)Lemon: 71%
SteadinessBourne: Up & down (best)±5.6 pts · 7 gamesLemon: Up & down±6.1 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionBourne: B+ (best)2026, 7 gmLemon: B2026, 6 gm
Game scriptBourne: Expected to trailLemon: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBourne: 0.6 (best)Lemon: 1.3
Defense funnelBourne: NeutralLemon: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBourne: 15th (average)Lemon: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBBourne: Brissett (Active)Lemon: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outBourne: Bullard (DE)Lemon: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceBourne: Retractable roofturfLemon: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleBourne: NormalLemon: Normal
Opp paceBourne: 9th (fast) (best)Lemon: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBourne: 4.6 (best)29th (soft)Lemon: 3.826th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedBourne: 65%25th (soft)Lemon: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgBourne: 8.5Lemon: 11.3 (best)
Last 5 avgBourne: 6.0Lemon: 9.1 (best)
vs seasonBourne: +1.6 (Rising)Lemon: +4.2 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runBourne: 1.18 (best)Lemon: 0.91
Receiving aDOTBourne: 5.3Lemon: 5.1
Target share trendBourne: SteadyLemon: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesBourne: Not widely startedLemon: 46%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBourne: WR47Lemon: WR43 (best)
Yards linereceivingBourne: 33.5Lemon: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.