Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Harvey
RB · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points7.7pts
if he plays · 80% to play
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or RJ Harvey: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start RJ Harvey.
- Ahead by
- +7.9pts
- over Harvey if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start RJ Harvey.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start RJ Harvey. RJ Harvey was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
HarveyIf he sitsRB · DEN vs KCUsually 11.2−3.6pts this week
Helps him
- 14.0last weekHe ran for 6 yards, caught 2 for 54 and scored last week (14.0 points).
Hurts him
- −2.1pts3 linesRushing yards 7.5 (usual 14.5), catches 3.5 (usual 4.2) and touchdowns 0.21 (usual 0.33) all sit below his usual.
- −1.5ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 21.5 receiving yards, below his usual 36.2.
- 19%touchesHe handles only 19% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- KCvs RBsEdgeKC is the 9th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Harvey: 7.7
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateHarvey: 1.3
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateHarvey: 0.21
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3 (best)Harvey: 19.8
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2Harvey: 0.2
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Harvey: 0.2
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5Harvey: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Harvey: 39%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Harvey: 9.6
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Harvey: 19%
Target shareJones: 11%Harvey: 16% (best)
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Harvey: 8.2
Targets / gameJones: 3.2Harvey: 4.7 (best)
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Harvey: 2.6 (best)
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7Harvey: 4.3 (best)
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Harvey: 11%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Harvey: 0.8
Rush success rateJones: 35%Harvey: 46% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0% (best)Harvey: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Harvey: Earned by usage 9.6Scored 11.2
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Harvey: 14.5
Points from rushingJones: 75%Harvey: 22%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowHarvey: In line
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Harvey: 0.16
RZ target shareJones: 14%Harvey: 19% (best)
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Harvey: 13% (best)
Catch rateJones: 68%Harvey: 89% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Harvey: 2.5 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Harvey: 1.9 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Harvey: 5.4
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Harvey: 11.4
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Harvey: 18%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Harvey: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22%Harvey: 17% (best)
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsHarvey: Steady±6.4 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmJones: C (best)Harvey: D+
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailHarvey: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Harvey: 1.7
Defense funnelJones: NeutralHarvey: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average)Harvey: 13th (average) (best)
Backfield roleJones: LeadHarvey: Backup
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfHarvey: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalHarvey: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Harvey: 24th (slow)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Harvey: 21%9th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedJones: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Harvey: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Harvey: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Harvey: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Harvey: 79% (best)17th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Harvey: Nix (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Harvey: 9.8
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Harvey: 11.9
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)Harvey: −1.5 (Cooling)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2 (best)Harvey: 3.6
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Harvey: 4.0
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Harvey: 2.89 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Harvey: −2.8
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtHarvey: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Harvey: 53% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Harvey: RB32
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateHarvey: 7.5
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