Pitts
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
8.9pts
market
Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Kyle Pitts or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyle Pitts. Bench Michael Mayer. Kyle Pitts leads at 8.9. Michael Mayer is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage23% target share
- Spike upside17.8 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.3 floor
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Pitts 1.3, Mayer 8.9.
Latest game on the card: Pitts 1.5, Mayer 12.2 (PPR points).
Why Kyle Pitts
Start Kyle Pitts — projects 8.9, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.
Kyle Pitts projects 8.9 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: start Kyle Pitts this week.
Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).
Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).
Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.9 vs 8.3); Ceiling (17.8 vs 12.1); Target share (23% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs D+); Implied team total (22.8 vs 21.5); Targets / game (6.9 vs 3.8); Snap share (88% vs 62%); Red zone targets (13 vs 6); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 7%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (C vs D+); Implied total (22.8 vs 21.5).
Why Michael Mayer
Sit Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 3.3); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 4.1); vs season (+3.6 vs -7.9); Consistency (31% vs 23%); Boom rate (20% vs 6%); Bust rate (20% vs 29%).
Recent form
Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Pitts has already beaten Mayer's 8.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Mayer has beaten Pitts's 8.9 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Pitts's edge is 0.6 points (8.9 to 8.3). Mayer's ceiling (12.1) clears Pitts's projection, so a big game from Mayer flips it. Pitts's floor (3.3) sits under Mayer's projection, so a quiet game from Pitts flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)