Lloyd
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
7.1pts
market
Harris
RB · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
MarShawn Lloyd or Najee Harris: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean MarShawn Lloyd over Najee Harris by 0.3. MarShawn Lloyd leads at 7.1. Najee Harris is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back1% of touches
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back2% of touches
- Shaky floor5.5 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2024 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Lloyd 8%, Harris 3%.
Latest game on the card: Lloyd 3.8, Harris 5.2 (PPR points).
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Start MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: start MarShawn Lloyd this week.
Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.1 vs 6.8); Opportunity score (5.3 vs 4.6); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 2.9); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 3.5); vs season (+0.0 vs -2.7); Carries / game (6.0 vs 5.0); Touches / game (7.0 vs 6.0); Target share (8% vs 3%).
Why Najee Harris
Sit Najee Harris — projects 6.8, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Najee Harris projects 6.8 points on a 5.5–12.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 5.0. Net: bench Najee Harris this week.
Working for Harris: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Harris: Committee back (2% of touches), Shaky floor (5.5 floor).
Where Harris leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 3.6); Ceiling (12.4 vs 9.8); Touch share (2% vs 1%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B-); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 2.5); Snap share (22% vs 14%); Red zone carries (1 vs 0).
Recent form
MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
Najee Harris's last 5 games: PPR points 2, 6.8, 2.8, 0.6, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Lloyd has already beaten Harris's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 4; Harris has beaten Lloyd's 7.1 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Najee Harris (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Lloyd's edge is 0.3 points (7.1 to 6.8). Harris's ceiling (12.4) clears Lloyd's projection, so a big game from Harris flips it. Lloyd's floor (3.6) sits under Harris's projection, so a quiet game from Lloyd flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)