nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Lloyd

RB · GB vs TB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

7.1pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Johnson

RB · BUF vs NE

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf

MarShawn Lloyd or Ty Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?

Start MarShawn Lloyd. Bench Ty Johnson. MarShawn Lloyd leads at 7.1. Ty Johnson is the first one out, 0.3 short.

Highlights

MarShawn LloydStart
RB · GB vs TB

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back1% of touches
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor
Ty JohnsonBench
RB · BUF vs NE

Pros

  • High-scoring spot27.8 team total

Cons

  • Committee back8% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · F vs RB

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2024 season (not enough games played this season yet).

LloydStart
JohnsonBench
Projection7.16.8
Floor3.65.8
Ceiling9.815.2
Touch share1%8%
Opportunity score5.34.6
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B-F
Implied team total21.527.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Lloyd 1%, Johnson 8%.

Latest game on the card: Lloyd 3.8, Johnson 9 (PPR points).

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Start MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.

MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: start MarShawn Lloyd this week.

Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.1 vs 6.8); Opportunity score (5.3 vs 4.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs F); Consistency (100% vs 20%); Bust rate (0% vs 29%); Carries / game (6.0 vs 2.9); Touches / game (7.0 vs 4.4); Target share (8% vs 7%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (5.3 vs 4.6); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (B- vs F).

Why Ty Johnson

Sit Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.

Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: bench Ty Johnson this week.

Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).

Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).

Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.8 vs 3.6); Ceiling (15.2 vs 9.8); Touch share (8% vs 1%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 5.4); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 4.7); vs season (+0.9 vs +0.0); Boom rate (14% vs 0%); Yards per carry (4.0 vs 2.5); Snap share (30% vs 14%); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 0); Implied total (27.8 vs 21.5).

Recent form

MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).

Lloyd has already beaten Johnson's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 4; Johnson has beaten Lloyd's 7.1 in 4 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.

Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.

What flips it

Lloyd's edge is 0.3 points (7.1 to 6.8). Johnson's ceiling (15.2) clears Lloyd's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Lloyd's floor (3.6) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Lloyd flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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