Gordon
RB · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Harris
RB · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Najee Harris or Ollie Gordon II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ollie Gordon II over Najee Harris by 0.8. Ollie Gordon II leads at 7.6. Najee Harris is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Crowd: 44% of managers started Gordon.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside40% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back10% of touches
- Low team total14.0 team total
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back2% of touches
- Shaky floor5.5 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Gordon 19, Harris 1.
Latest game on the card: Gordon 14.5, Harris 5.2 (PPR points).
Why Ollie Gordon II
Start Ollie Gordon II — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs MIN, with a rising role.
Ollie Gordon II projects 7.6 points on a 3.6–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: carries / game at 4.1. Net: start Ollie Gordon II this week.
Working for Gordon: Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).
Working against Gordon: Committee back (10% of touches), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Gordon leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 6.8); Touch share (10% vs 2%); Last 3 avg (5.8 vs 2.9); Last 5 avg (3.8 vs 3.5); vs season (-0.2 vs -2.7); Boom rate (40% vs 0%); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 1).
Why Najee Harris
Sit Najee Harris — projects 6.8, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Najee Harris projects 6.8 points on a 5.5–12.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 5.0. Net: bench Najee Harris this week.
Working for Harris: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Harris: Committee back (2% of touches), Shaky floor (5.5 floor).
Where Harris leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 3.6); Ceiling (12.4 vs 12.1); Opportunity score (4.6 vs 3.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D+); Implied team total (21.5 vs 14.0); Consistency (100% vs 11%); Bust rate (0% vs 50%); Carries / game (5.0 vs 4.1); Touches / game (6.0 vs 4.5); Target share (3% vs 2%); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 2.8).
Recent form
Ollie Gordon II's last 5 games: PPR points 0.9, 1, 2.1, 0.7, 14.5 (oldest to newest).
Najee Harris's last 5 games: PPR points 2, 6.8, 2.8, 0.6, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Gordon has already beaten Harris's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 5; Harris has beaten Gordon's 7.6 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ollie Gordon II (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
Najee Harris (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Gordon's edge is 0.8 points (7.6 to 6.8). Harris's ceiling (12.4) clears Gordon's projection, so a big game from Harris flips it. Gordon's floor (3.6) sits under Harris's projection, so a quiet game from Gordon flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)