Johnson
RB · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Harris
RB · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Najee Harris or Ty Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ty Johnson over Najee Harris; the two are level at 6.8. Ty Johnson leads at 6.8. Najee Harris is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Johnson and Harris are effectively tied on projection — Johnson gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back2% of touches
- Shaky floor5.5 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Johnson 19, Harris 1.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 9, Harris 5.2 (PPR points).
Why Ty Johnson
Start Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: start Ty Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.8 vs 5.5); Ceiling (15.2 vs 12.4); Touch share (8% vs 2%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 2.9); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 3.5); vs season (+0.9 vs -2.7); Boom rate (14% vs 0%); Target share (7% vs 3%); Snap share (30% vs 22%); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 1).
Why Najee Harris
Sit Najee Harris — projects 6.8, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Najee Harris projects 6.8 points on a 5.5–12.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 5.0. Net: bench Najee Harris this week.
Working for Harris: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Harris: Committee back (2% of touches), Shaky floor (5.5 floor).
Where Harris leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs F); Consistency (100% vs 20%); Bust rate (0% vs 29%); Carries / game (5.0 vs 2.9); Touches / game (6.0 vs 4.4); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 4.0).
Recent form
Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).
Najee Harris's last 5 games: PPR points 2, 6.8, 2.8, 0.6, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Johnson has already beaten Harris's 6.8 projection in 4 of his 5; Harris has beaten Johnson's 6.8 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Najee Harris (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Johnson and Harris are level on projection (6.8). Harris's ceiling (12.4) clears Johnson's projection, so a big game from Harris flips it. Johnson's floor (5.8) sits under Harris's projection, so a quiet game from Johnson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)