Harris
RB · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Allgeier
RB · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
6.5pts
market
Najee Harris or Tyler Allgeier: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Najee Harris over Tyler Allgeier by 0.3. Najee Harris leads at 6.8. Tyler Allgeier is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back2% of touches
- Shaky floor5.5 floor
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Shaky floor4.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone carries: Harris 1, Allgeier 32.
Latest game on the card: Harris 5.2, Allgeier 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Najee Harris
Start Najee Harris — projects 6.8, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Najee Harris projects 6.8 points on a 5.5–12.4 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 5.0. Net: start Najee Harris this week.
Working for Harris: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Harris: Committee back (2% of touches), Shaky floor (5.5 floor).
Where Harris leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.5); Floor (5.5 vs 4.3); Ceiling (12.4 vs 8.9); Consistency (100% vs 40%); Bust rate (0% vs 31%); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 3.6).
Why Tyler Allgeier
Sit Tyler Allgeier — projects 6.5, a run-funnel matchup vs NYG.
Tyler Allgeier projects 6.5 points on a 4.3–8.9 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYG. Usage: carries / game at 8.4. Net: bench Tyler Allgeier this week.
Working for Allgeier: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).
Working against Allgeier: Committee back (19% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).
Where Allgeier leads the head-to-head: Touch share (19% vs 2%); Opportunity score (6.7 vs 4.6); Implied team total (23.0 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (5.9 vs 2.9); Last 5 avg (4.6 vs 3.5); vs season (-1.7 vs -2.7); Boom rate (23% vs 0%); Carries / game (8.4 vs 5.0); Touches / game (9.2 vs 6.0); Snap share (30% vs 22%); Goal line carries (10 vs 0); Red zone carries (32 vs 1).
Recent form
Najee Harris's last 5 games: PPR points 2, 6.8, 2.8, 0.6, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Tyler Allgeier's last 5 games: PPR points 2.3, 2.9, 9, 3.9, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Harris has already beaten Allgeier's 6.5 projection in 1 of his 5; Allgeier has beaten Harris's 6.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Najee Harris (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
Tyler Allgeier (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.
What flips it
Harris's edge is 0.3 points (6.8 to 6.5). Allgeier's ceiling (8.9) clears Harris's projection, so a big game from Allgeier flips it. Harris's floor (5.5) sits under Allgeier's projection, so a quiet game from Harris flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
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