Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
5.8pts
opportunity
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Noah Gray or Oronde Gadsden II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Oronde Gadsden II over Noah Gray by 0.7. Oronde Gadsden II leads at 5.8. Noah Gray is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Gadsden 15, Gray 3.
Latest game on the card: Gadsden 0 (PPR points).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Start Oronde Gadsden II — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 5.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.1); Floor (2.8 vs 1.2); Ceiling (10.0 vs 6.0); Target share (14% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D-); Last 3 avg (5.0 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 2.8); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.1); Targets / game (4.6 vs 2.6); Snap share (63% vs 53%); Red zone targets (15 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (26.0 vs 17.8); Consistency (29% vs 17%); Boom rate (36% vs 13%); Bust rate (43% vs 47%).
Recent form
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Gadsden has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 3 of his 5; Gray has beaten Gadsden's 5.8 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Gadsden's edge is 0.7 points (5.8 to 5.1). Gray's ceiling (6) clears Gadsden's projection, so a big game from Gray flips it. Gadsden's floor (2.8) sits under Gray's projection, so a quiet game from Gadsden flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)