Gordon
RB · MIA vs MIN
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Johnson
RB · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Ollie Gordon II or Ty Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Ollie Gordon II. Bench Ty Johnson. Ollie Gordon II leads at 7.6. Ty Johnson is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: 44% of managers started Gordon.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside40% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back10% of touches
- Low team total14.0 team total
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Gordon 2%, Johnson 7%.
Latest game on the card: Gordon 14.5, Johnson 9 (PPR points).
Why Ollie Gordon II
Start Ollie Gordon II — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs MIN, with a rising role.
Ollie Gordon II projects 7.6 points on a 3.6–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: carries / game at 4.1. Net: start Ollie Gordon II this week.
Working for Gordon: Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).
Working against Gordon: Committee back (10% of touches), Low team total (14.0 team total).
Where Gordon leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 6.8); Touch share (10% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs F); Boom rate (40% vs 14%); Carries / game (4.1 vs 2.9); Touches / game (4.5 vs 4.4); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (D+ vs F).
Why Ty Johnson
Sit Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: bench Ty Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.8 vs 3.6); Ceiling (15.2 vs 12.1); Opportunity score (4.6 vs 3.3); Implied team total (27.8 vs 14.0); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 5.8); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 3.8); vs season (+0.9 vs -0.2); Consistency (20% vs 11%); Bust rate (29% vs 50%); Target share (7% vs 2%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (4.6 vs 3.3); Yards per carry (4.0 vs 2.8); Snap share (30% vs 22%); Implied total (27.8 vs 14.0).
Recent form
Ollie Gordon II's last 5 games: PPR points 0.9, 1, 2.1, 0.7, 14.5 (oldest to newest).
Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).
Gordon has already beaten Johnson's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 5; Johnson has beaten Gordon's 7.6 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ollie Gordon II (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.
Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
What flips it
Gordon's edge is 0.8 points (7.6 to 6.8). Johnson's ceiling (15.2) clears Gordon's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Gordon's floor (3.6) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Gordon flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
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