Johnson
RB · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Allgeier
RB · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
6.5pts
market
Ty Johnson or Tyler Allgeier: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ty Johnson over Tyler Allgeier by 0.3. Ty Johnson leads at 6.8. Tyler Allgeier is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
Cons
- Committee back8% of touches
- Tough matchupTough · F vs RB
Pros
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Cons
- Committee back19% of touches
- Shaky floor4.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is carries / game: Johnson 2.9, Allgeier 8.4.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 9, Allgeier 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Ty Johnson
Start Ty Johnson — projects 6.8, a tough matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Ty Johnson projects 6.8 points on a 5.8–15.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against NE. Usage: carries / game at 2.9. Net: start Ty Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (8% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · F vs RB).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.5); Floor (5.8 vs 4.3); Ceiling (15.2 vs 8.9); Implied team total (27.8 vs 23.0); Last 3 avg (12.1 vs 5.9); Last 5 avg (10.0 vs 4.6); vs season (+0.9 vs -1.7); Bust rate (29% vs 31%); Target share (7% vs 3%); Yards per carry (4.0 vs 3.6).
Why Tyler Allgeier
Sit Tyler Allgeier — projects 6.5, a run-funnel matchup vs NYG.
Tyler Allgeier projects 6.5 points on a 4.3–8.9 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against NYG. Usage: carries / game at 8.4. Net: bench Tyler Allgeier this week.
Working for Allgeier: Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).
Working against Allgeier: Committee back (19% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).
Where Allgeier leads the head-to-head: Touch share (19% vs 8%); Opportunity score (6.7 vs 4.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs F); Consistency (40% vs 20%); Boom rate (23% vs 14%); Carries / game (8.4 vs 2.9); Touches / game (9.2 vs 4.4); Goal line carries (10 vs 6); Red zone carries (32 vs 19).
Recent form
Ty Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.8, 7.6, 7.8, 19.6, 9 (oldest to newest).
Tyler Allgeier's last 5 games: PPR points 2.3, 2.9, 9, 3.9, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Johnson has already beaten Allgeier's 6.5 projection in 4 of his 5; Allgeier has beaten Johnson's 6.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Ty Johnson (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
Tyler Allgeier (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.
What flips it
Johnson's edge is 0.3 points (6.8 to 6.5). Allgeier's ceiling (8.9) clears Johnson's projection, so a big game from Allgeier flips it. Johnson's floor (5.8) sits under Allgeier's projection, so a quiet game from Johnson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
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