
What the line assumes
A 26.5-point line puts Brunson right around his typical scoring night — close to a coin-flip.
Every line available for Jalen tonight, with how often he cleared it across his recent games.
Consensus line
26.5
4 of 7 books agree
Updated 42 min agoNuvela projection
25.3
4.5% below the line
Season hit rate
47/95
above the line · 49%
| Window | GP | Median | Over win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| L5 | 5 | 20 | 2/5 40% |
| L10 | 10 | 28 | 5/10 50% |
| L20 | 20 | 27 | 10/20 50% |
| Season | 95 | 26 | 47/95 49% |
Tough matchupSAS 8th vs guards · pace +0.5 vs league
SAS is a top-8 defense against guards.
Rest & venue4 days rest · +0.6 pts on rest
On 4 days rest, Brunson averages +0.6 points vs his season norm.
One injury factor into tonight's number — Garcia's status is the biggest swing.
Layer conditions to filter the sample. Median and over win% update live; below 8 games the sample is flagged as thin.
Tonight's matchup has historically resembled these games most closely — matched on opponent defensive rank, team pace, rest days, and venue.
San Antonio's defensive ranking against each position over the last 15 games. Jalen plays G.
| Pos | Rank | Pts | Ast | Reb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 3 | 21.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 |
| SG | 14 | 31.9 | 7.5 | 9.4 |
| SF | 12 | 25.5 | 5.1 | 9.1 |
| PF | 5 | 19.4 | 3.7 | 8.7 |
| C | 13 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 11.3 |
Lead guards in high-usage roles, their most recent matchup against San Antonio.
| Player | Date | Min | Points | vs 26.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SC S. CurryGS | 11/14 | 36 | 49 | above |
LB L. BallCHA | 3/14 | 22 | 17 | below |
TM T. MaxeyPHI | 4/6 | 40 | 15 | below |
CW C. WhiteCHA | 3/14 | 26 | 18 | below |
JM J. MurrayDEN | 4/4 | 46 | 15 | below |
DG D. GarlandLAC | 4/2 | 29 | 11 | below |
Points 26.5 — over/under odds across the market.
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