What is Jose Alvarado's points prop tonight?

Jose Alvarado's points line is set at 2.5 for the New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs game (Jun 13 · 8:30 PM ET). nuvela.ai is research, not a pick.

How often does Jose Alvarado go over 2.5 points?

Over the last 10 games, Jose Alvarado has gone over 2.5 points 7 times (70%).

What does Nuvela project for Jose Alvarado's points?

Nuvela's data-based projection is 5.3 points, compared with the market line of 2.5. Nuvela surfaces the research behind the line; it does not make picks.

Jose Alvarado Props vs Spurs: Points 2.5

G#5

Points 2.5

New York Knicks

@ SASJun 13 · 8:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center

G#5

Points 2.5(O -129 · U -100)

New York Knicks

@ SASJun 13 · 8:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center

What the line assumes

A 2.5-point line sits below Alvarado's typical scoring night.

Median PPG: 6Line: 2.5

All player props

Every line available for Jose tomorrow, with how often he cleared it across his recent games.

Prop summary

Consensus line

2.5

4 of 6 books agree

Updated June 11

Nuvela projection

5.3

Based on recent performance & game context

Season hit rate

73/88

above the line · 83%

Recent output relative to line

Last 10 games · sufficient sample

2.5

5.3

5/85/105/195/215/235/256/36/56/86/10

Tomorrow

Consensus line

2.5O -129 · U -100

Over win%

7/1070%

Median

Projection

5.3Tomorrow

Explore line2.5

Distribution by time window

Window	GP	Median	Over win%
L5	5	4	4/5 80%
L10	10	4	7/10 70%
L20	20	4	15/20 75%
Season	88	6	73/88 83%

Research context for tomorrow

AI-generated

2 factors in playmatchup is the swing variable

Tough matchupSAS 8th vs guards · pace +0.5 vs league

SAS is a top-8 defense against guards.

Matchup & pace

Rest & venue4 days rest · -0.4 pts on rest

On 4 days rest, Alvarado averages -0.4 points vs his season norm.

Rest & schedule

Injury analysis

AI-generated

One injury factor into tonight's number — Garcia's status is the biggest swing.

LOW impact

David Jones GarciaSAS · Out (Ankle)

Matchup

Custom Splits

Interactive

Layer conditions to filter the sample. Median and over win% update live; below 8 games the sample is flagged as thin.

Location

Opp defense

Rest

Teammate

Any teammate

WithWithout

Matching games88

Median6

Over win%83%

Most similar games this season

AI-matched

Tomorrow's matchup has historically resembled these games most closely — matched on opponent defensive rank, team pace, rest days, and venue.

11/8@ SAS3d rest · def #3 · road8

3/29@ OKC3d rest · def #1 · road8

2/8@ BOS4d rest · def #4 · road12

6/5@ SAS2d rest · def #3 · road2

12/18@ NOP4d rest · def #23 · road7

5-game comp set average7.4 points · 4 of 5 above 2.5

San Antonio defense by position

San Antonio's defensive ranking against each position over the last 15 games. Jose plays G.

Pos	Rank	Pts	Ast	Reb
PG	3	21.1	6.9	5.8
SG	14	31.9	7.5	9.4
SF	12	25.5	5.1	9.1
PF	5	19.4	3.7	8.7
C	13	18.0	4.0	11.3

Similar guards vs San Antonio · recently

L15 games

Lead guards in high-usage roles, their most recent matchup against San Antonio.

Player	Date	Min	Points	vs 2.5
LC L. CryerGS	4/1	23	17	above
AD A. DosunmuMIN	5/15	23	10	above
BH B. HylandMIN	5/15	8	3	above
AJ A. JohnsonDAL	4/10	20	13	above
MS M. SasserDET	3/5	7	0	below
RD R. DennisATL	10/17	9	2	below

Injury report

NYK· New York Knicks

SAS· SAS

Jones GarciaAnkle

OUT

Game log · season

most recent first

Date	Matchup	Score	Min	Line	Points	O/U	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	STL	BLK	FG	Rest	Def	Pace
6/10PO	vs SAS	W107-106	16	2.5	8	Over	8	2	3	2	0	0	3-475%	2d	#3	100.7
6/8PO	vs SAS	L111-115	12	2.5	4	Over	4	3	1	0	0	0	2-540%	3d	#3	100.7
6/5PO	@ SAS	W105-104	10	2.5	2	Under	2	3	2	0	0	0	0-40%	2d	#3	100.7
6/3PO	@ SAS	W105-95	11	1.5	7	Over	7	4	1	1	1	0	3-650%	9d	#3	100.7
5/25PO	@ CLE	W130-93	10	2.5	4	Over	4	0	2	0	2	0	2-367%	2d	#15	100.7
5/23PO	@ CLE	W121-108	4	2.5	2	Under	2	0	0	0	0	0	1-333%	2d	#15	100.7
5/21PO	vs CLE	W109-93	8	2.5	0	Under	0	1	1	0	0	1	0-10%	2d	#15	100.7
5/19PO	vs CLE	W115-104	7	2.5	4	Over	4	1	0	0	0	0	2-367%	9d	#15	100.7
5/10PO	@ PHI	W144-114	10	—	7	—	7	3	1	1	1	0	3-650%	2d	#17	100.4
5/8PO	@ PHI	W108-94	8	—	3	—	3	0	0	1	0	0	1-1100%	2d	#17	100.4
5/6PO	vs PHI	W108-102	7	—	3	—	3	0	1	1	0	0	1-250%	2d	#17	100.4
5/4PO	vs PHI	W137-98	9	—	5	—	5	1	1	1	1	0	2-450%	4d	#17	100.4
4/30PO	@ ATL	W140-89	7	4.5	3	Under	3	1	2	1	2	0	1-250%	2d	#10	102.5
4/28PO	vs ATL	W126-97	12	2.5	12	Over	12	2	1	2	0	1	4-757%	3d	#10	102.5
4/25PO	@ ATL	W114-98	14	—	6	—	6	1	2	2	3	0	2-540%	2d	#10	102.5
4/23PO	@ ATL	L108-109	6	—	5	—	5	0	0	0	0	0	2-367%	3d	#10	102.5
4/20PO	vs ATL	L106-107	9	—	0	—	0	2	3	0	0	0	0-30%	8d	#10	102.5
4/12	vs CHA	L96-110	34	12.5	16	Over	16	5	7	4	2	1	6-1638%	2d	#11	97.6
4/10	vs TOR	W112-95	18	—	12	—	12	5	2	1	0	0	4-667%	7d	#5	99.2
4/3	vs CHI	W136-96	12	4.5	2	Under	2	1	4	0	3	0	1-333%	2d	#22	103.2
4/1	@ MEM	W130-119	32	10.5	15	Over	15	4	4	1	2	1	6-1250%	1d	#27	101.7
3/31	@ HOU	L94-111	12	4.5	12	Over	12	1	2	2	0	0	5-683%	2d	#6	97.0
3/29	@ OKC	L100-111	17	—	8	—	8	3	4	2	0	0	3-1030%	3d	#1	100.4
3/26	@ CHA	L103-114	5	—	0	—	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-20%	2d	#11	97.6
3/24	vs NOP	W121-116	9	—	0	—	0	1	1	0	0	0	0-0	2d	#23	101.4
3/22	vs WAS	W145-113	16	6.5	8	Over	8	2	8	2	1	0	3-743%	2d	#30	102.5
3/20	@ BKN	W93-92	13	5.5	2	Under	2	1	2	0	1	0	1-520%	3d	#25	97.6
3/17	vs IND	W136-110	27	9.5	16	Over	16	2	10	4	2	0	5-1050%	2d	#24	101.8
3/15	vs GSW	W110-107	16	—	4	—	4	1	4	0	0	0	2-367%	2d	#16	100.0
3/13	@ IND	W101-92	13	6.5	0	Under	0	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	2d	#24	101.8
3/11	@ UTA	W134-117	15	5.5	4	Under	4	2	7	0	2	0	2-367%	2d	#29	103.5
3/9	@ LAC	L118-126	8	4.5	0	Under	0	1	3	0	0	0	0-40%	1d	#18	97.3
3/8	@ LAL	L97-110	7	—	0	—	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-20%	2d	#20	99.2
3/6	@ DEN	W142-103	11	5.5	4	Under	4	1	3	0	0	0	1-333%	2d	#21	99.5
3/4	vs OKC	L100-103	12	5.5	3	Under	3	0	2	0	0	0	1-425%	1d	#1	100.4
3/3	@ TOR	W111-95	17	6.5	4	Under	4	1	5	0	1	0	2-450%	2d	#5	99.2
3/1	vs SAS	W114-89	17	6.5	3	Under	3	3	5	0	1	0	1-425%	2d	#3	100.7
2/27	@ MIL	W127-98	13	7.5	7	Under	7	4	5	1	0	0	3-560%	3d	#26	98.3
2/24	@ CLE	L94-109	22	7.5	5	Under	5	4	3	1	1	1	2-540%	2d	#15	100.7
2/22	@ CHI	W105-99	25	7.5	5	Under	5	4	2	1	0	0	2-825%	1d	#22	103.2
2/21	vs HOU	W108-106	20	6.5	8	Over	8	1	4	2	5	0	3-933%	2d	#6	97.0
2/19	vs DET	L111-126	21	6.5	6	Under	6	4	5	0	1	0	3-838%	8d	#2	99.9
2/11	@ PHI	W138-89	19	7.5	26	Over	26	3	4	8	5	0	8-1362%	1d	#17	100.4
2/10	vs IND	L134-137	18	8.5	4	Under	4	1	5	0	0	0	1-520%	2d	#24	101.8
2/8	@ BOS	W111-89	25	—	12	—	12	2	2	2	2	1	5-1242%	4d	#4	95.6
2/4	@ MIL	L137-141	17	—	9	—	9	5	1	3	0	0	3-560%	2d	#26	98.3
2/2	@ CHA	L95-102	30	—	3	—	3	0	3	1	0	0	1-714%	2d	#11	97.6
1/31	@ PHI	L114-124	18	—	10	—	10	2	3	3	1	0	3-838%	1d	#17	100.4
1/30	@ NOP	W106-114	23	—	11	—	11	1	2	3	1	0	4-1040%	3d	#23	101.4
1/27	@ OKC	L95-104	20	—	8	—	8	3	4	2	0	0	3-743%	2d	#1	100.4
1/25	@ SAS	W104-95	13	—	6	—	6	5	1	2	0	0	2-540%	19d	#3	100.7
1/6	@ NOP	L111-103	23	—	5	—	5	4	6	1	1	0	2-633%	2d	#23	101.4
1/4	@ MIA	L106-125	20	—	6	—	6	6	3	2	1	0	2-729%	2d	#14	104.2
1/2	@ NOP	L122-109	21	—	0	—	0	3	4	0	0	0	0-30%	6d	#23	101.4
12/27	@ NOP	L123-114	14	—	7	—	7	0	3	1	2	0	3-743%	1d	#23	101.4
12/26	@ NOP	L115-108	25	—	11	—	11	2	2	1	0	0	4-757%	3d	#23	101.4
12/23	@ CLE	L118-141	25	—	6	—	6	2	2	2	1	0	2-450%	1d	#15	100.7
12/22	@ NOP	W113-119	16	—	6	—	6	2	3	2	1	0	2-450%	2d	#23	101.4
12/20	@ NOP	W109-128	22	—	3	—	3	1	1	1	1	0	1-520%	2d	#23	101.4
12/18	@ NOP	W128-133	30	—	7	—	7	3	6	1	1	0	2-540%	4d	#23	101.4
12/14	@ CHI	W114-104	18	—	3	—	3	2	2	1	1	1	1-333%	3d	#22	103.2
12/11	@ NOP	W120-143	23	—	4	—	4	5	9	0	0	1	2-825%	3d	#23	101.4
12/8	@ NOP	L135-132	31	—	10	—	10	3	6	2	1	1	4-757%	2d	#23	101.4
12/6	@ BKN	L101-119	30	—	9	—	9	2	6	1	4	0	4-667%	2d	#25	97.6
12/4	@ NOP	L125-116	22	—	13	—	13	3	1	3	2	0	5-863%	2d	#23	101.4
12/2	@ NOP	L149-142	25	—	14	—	14	3	3	4	1	0	5-863%	2d	#23	101.4
11/30	@ LAL	L121-133	28	—	12	—	12	0	2	2	0	0	5-1242%	1d	#20	99.2
11/29	@ GSW	L96-104	31	—	7	—	7	3	4	1	0	1	1-1010%	3d	#16	100.0
11/26	@ NOP	L133-128	27	—	24	—	24	5	2	6	2	0	9-1560%	2d	#23	101.4
11/24	@ NOP	W130-143	32	—	16	—	16	8	8	2	2	0	7-1644%	2d	#23	101.4
11/22	@ NOP	L115-98	17	—	8	—	8	1	1	2	0	0	3-560%	1d	#23	101.4
11/21	@ DAL	L115-118	20	—	5	—	5	5	6	1	0	0	2-540%	2d	#19	102.6
11/19	@ NOP	L125-118	19	—	2	—	2	4	2	0	1	0	1-617%	2d	#23	101.4
11/17	@ NOP	L126-109	23	—	6	—	6	2	1	0	2	0	3-933%	1d	#23	101.4
11/16	@ NOP	L124-106	25	—	18	—	18	1	3	3	0	0	6-1250%	2d	#23	101.4
11/14	@ NOP	L118-104	21	—	8	—	8	2	2	2	1	0	3-838%	2d	#23	101.4
11/12	@ NOP	L125-117	22	—	5	—	5	1	3	1	1	0	2-729%	2d	#23	101.4
11/10	@ PHX	L98-121	23	—	8	—	8	3	4	1	2	0	2-633%	2d	#9	98.1
11/8	@ SAS	L119-126	17	—	8	—	8	2	5	2	0	0	2-367%	3d	#3	100.7
11/5	@ DAL	W101-99	23	—	13	—	13	8	2	3	0	0	4-850%	1d	#19	102.6
11/4	@ NOP	W112-116	31	—	18	—	18	3	6	4	2	0	7-1164%	2d	#23	101.4
11/2	@ OKC	L106-137	18	—	3	—	3	2	2	1	1	0	1-333%	2d	#1	100.4
10/31	@ LAC	L124-126	16	—	4	—	4	2	1	1	1	0	1-333%	2d	#18	97.3
10/29	@ DEN	L88-122	14	—	3	—	3	2	1	1	1	0	1-520%	2d	#21	99.5
10/27	@ NOP	L122-90	22	—	5	—	5	3	2	1	2	0	2-633%	3d	#23	101.4
10/24	@ NOP	L120-116	3	—	0	—	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	8d	#23	101.4
10/16	@ ORL	L125-132	13	—	0	—	0	2	2	0	0	0	0-30%	2d	#13	100.6
10/14	@ NOP	L130-128	15	—	8	—	8	3	2	0	1	0	2-729%	—	#23	101.4
Averages			17.7	5.5	6.7		6.7	2.3	2.9	1.3	0.9	0.1	42%	2.7d	#17	100.6

Prop odds

Points 2.5 — over/under odds across the market.

Open Line

O 2.5-124

U 2.5-107

Consensus

O 2.5-129

U 2.5-100

DraftKings

O 2.5-128

U 2.5+100

FanDuel

O 2.5-120

U 2.5-106

BetMGM

O 2.5-140

U 2.5+105

ESPN BET

O 3.5+160

U 3.5-215

Hard Rock Bet

O 2.5-130

U 2.5+100

Bovada

O 3.5+140

U 3.5-185

Take this research further

Each question opens in the Research Assistant with this player's context pre-loaded.

Common questions

Auto-generated from the data on this page. Research, not picks.

What is Jose Alvarado's points prop tonight?: Jose Alvarado's points line is set at 2.5 for the New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs game (Jun 13 · 8:30 PM ET). nuvela.ai is research, not a pick.
How often does Jose Alvarado go over 2.5 points?: Over the last 10 games, Jose Alvarado has gone over 2.5 points 7 times (70%).
What does Nuvela project for Jose Alvarado's points?: Nuvela's data-based projection is 5.3 points, compared with the market line of 2.5. Nuvela surfaces the research behind the line; it does not make picks.

Window

Median

Over win%

4/5

80%

L10

7/10

70%

L20

15/20

75%

Season

73/88

83%

Pos

Rank

Pts

Ast

Reb

21.1

6.9

5.8

31.9

7.5

9.4

25.5

5.1

9.1

19.4

3.7

8.7

18.0

4.0

11.3

Player

Date

Min

Points

vs 2.5

L. CryerGS

4/1

above

A. DosunmuMIN

5/15

above

B. HylandMIN

5/15

above

A. JohnsonDAL

4/10

above

M. SasserDET

3/5

below

R. DennisATL

10/17

below

Date

Matchup

Score

Min

Line

Points

O/U

PTS

REB

AST

3PM

STL

BLK

Rest

Def

Pace

6/10PO

vs SAS

W107-106

2.5

Over

3-475%

100.7

6/8PO

vs SAS

L111-115

2.5

Over

2-540%

100.7

6/5PO

@ SAS

W105-104

2.5

Under

0-40%

100.7

6/3PO

@ SAS

W105-95

1.5

Over

3-650%

100.7

5/25PO

@ CLE

W130-93

2.5

Over

2-367%

#15

100.7

5/23PO

@ CLE

W121-108

2.5

Under

1-333%

#15

100.7

5/21PO

vs CLE

W109-93

2.5

Under

0-10%

#15

100.7

5/19PO

vs CLE

W115-104

2.5

Over

2-367%

#15

100.7

5/10PO

@ PHI

W144-114

—

3-650%

#17

100.4

5/8PO

@ PHI

W108-94

—

1-1100%

#17

100.4

5/6PO

vs PHI

W108-102

—

1-250%

#17

100.4

5/4PO

vs PHI

W137-98

—

2-450%

#17

100.4

4/30PO

@ ATL

W140-89

4.5

Under

1-250%

#10

102.5

4/28PO

vs ATL

W126-97

2.5

Over

4-757%

#10

102.5

4/25PO

@ ATL

W114-98

—

2-540%

#10

102.5

4/23PO

@ ATL

L108-109

—

2-367%

#10

102.5

4/20PO

vs ATL

L106-107

—

0-30%

#10

102.5

4/12

vs CHA

L96-110

12.5

Over

6-1638%

#11

97.6

4/10

vs TOR

W112-95

—

4-667%

99.2

4/3

vs CHI

W136-96

4.5

Under

1-333%

#22

103.2

4/1

@ MEM

W130-119

10.5

Over

6-1250%

#27

101.7

3/31

@ HOU

L94-111

4.5

Over

5-683%

97.0

3/29

@ OKC

L100-111

—

3-1030%

100.4

3/26

@ CHA

L103-114

—

0-20%

#11

97.6

3/24

vs NOP

W121-116

—

0-0

#23

101.4

3/22

vs WAS

W145-113

6.5

Over

3-743%

#30

102.5

3/20

@ BKN

W93-92

5.5

Under

1-520%

#25

97.6

3/17

vs IND

W136-110

9.5

Over

5-1050%

#24

101.8

3/15

vs GSW

W110-107

—

2-367%

#16

100.0

3/13

@ IND

W101-92

6.5

Under

0-0

#24

101.8

3/11

@ UTA

W134-117

5.5

Under

2-367%

#29

103.5

3/9

@ LAC

L118-126

4.5

Under

0-40%

#18

97.3

3/8

@ LAL

L97-110

—

0-20%

#20

99.2

3/6

@ DEN

W142-103

5.5

Under

1-333%

#21

99.5

3/4

vs OKC

L100-103

5.5

Under

1-425%

100.4

3/3

@ TOR

W111-95

6.5

Under

2-450%

99.2

3/1

vs SAS

W114-89

6.5

Under

1-425%

100.7

2/27

@ MIL

W127-98

7.5

Under

3-560%

#26

98.3

2/24

@ CLE

L94-109

7.5

Under

2-540%

#15

100.7

2/22

@ CHI

W105-99

7.5

Under

2-825%

#22

103.2

2/21

vs HOU

W108-106

6.5

Over

3-933%

97.0

2/19

vs DET

L111-126

6.5

Under

3-838%

99.9

2/11

@ PHI

W138-89

7.5

Over

8-1362%

#17

100.4

2/10

vs IND

L134-137

8.5

Under

1-520%

#24

101.8

2/8

@ BOS

W111-89

—

5-1242%

95.6

2/4

@ MIL

L137-141

—

3-560%

#26

98.3

2/2

@ CHA

L95-102

—

1-714%

#11

97.6

1/31

@ PHI

L114-124

—

3-838%

#17

100.4

1/30

@ NOP

W106-114

—

4-1040%

#23

101.4

1/27

@ OKC

L95-104

—

3-743%

100.4

1/25

@ SAS

W104-95

—

2-540%

19d

100.7

1/6

@ NOP

L111-103

—

2-633%

#23

101.4

1/4

@ MIA

L106-125

—

2-729%

#14

104.2

1/2

@ NOP

L122-109

—

0-30%

#23

101.4

12/27

@ NOP

L123-114

—

3-743%

#23

101.4

12/26

@ NOP

L115-108

—

4-757%

#23

101.4

12/23

@ CLE

L118-141

—

2-450%

#15

100.7

12/22

@ NOP

W113-119

—

2-450%

#23

101.4

12/20

@ NOP

W109-128

—

1-520%

#23

101.4

12/18

@ NOP

W128-133

—

2-540%

#23

101.4

12/14

@ CHI

W114-104

—

1-333%

#22

103.2

12/11

@ NOP

W120-143

—

2-825%

#23

101.4

12/8

@ NOP

L135-132

—

4-757%

#23

101.4

12/6

@ BKN

L101-119

—

4-667%

#25

97.6

12/4

@ NOP

L125-116

—

5-863%

#23

101.4

12/2

@ NOP

L149-142

—

5-863%

#23

101.4

11/30

@ LAL

L121-133

—

5-1242%

#20

99.2

11/29

@ GSW

L96-104

—

1-1010%

#16

100.0

11/26

@ NOP

L133-128

—

9-1560%

#23

101.4

11/24

@ NOP

W130-143

—

7-1644%

#23

101.4

11/22

@ NOP

L115-98

—

3-560%

#23

101.4

11/21

@ DAL

L115-118

—

2-540%

#19

102.6

11/19

@ NOP

L125-118

—

1-617%

#23

101.4

11/17

@ NOP

L126-109

—

3-933%

#23

101.4

11/16

@ NOP

L124-106

—

6-1250%

#23

101.4

11/14

@ NOP

L118-104

—

3-838%

#23

101.4

11/12

@ NOP

L125-117

—

2-729%

#23

101.4

11/10

@ PHX

L98-121

—

2-633%

98.1

11/8

@ SAS

L119-126

—

2-367%

100.7

11/5

@ DAL

W101-99

—

4-850%

#19

102.6

11/4

@ NOP

W112-116

—

7-1164%

#23

101.4

11/2

@ OKC

L106-137

—

1-333%

100.4

10/31

@ LAC

L124-126

—

1-333%

#18

97.3

10/29

@ DEN

L88-122

—

1-520%

#21

99.5

10/27

@ NOP

L122-90

—

2-633%

#23

101.4

10/24

@ NOP

L120-116

—

0-0

#23

101.4

10/16

@ ORL

L125-132

—

0-30%

#13

100.6

10/14

@ NOP

L130-128

—

2-729%

—

#23

101.4

Averages

17.7

5.5

6.7

2.3

2.9

1.3

0.9

0.1

42%

2.7d

#17

100.6