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Sit or start?
Week7 · 2026
Scoring

Updated Fri 23 Oct, 9:34 AM ET

Bench
QBKC

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs

@ Seattle SeahawksSun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: Full

Projected
15.9pts
Week rank
QB14
Started
67%

Range this weekFrom posted lines

Floor 12.1Ceiling 22.7

QBKC @ SEAQB1415.9 projected (12.1–22.7)PPR

Should I start Patrick Mahomes in Week 7?

Sit Patrick Mahomes in Week 7.

Mahomes projects 15.9 PPR points to Tyler Shough’s 16.4.

Measured against the QB12 start line: Tyler Shough, QB12 at 16.4 projected PPR points, the last quarterback inside it.

ConfidenceLowerToss-up · 0.5 pts

Shough

Shough has a lighter pass rush to face (pressure on 19% of throws to 40%).

Mahomes

Mahomes has more upside (a ceiling of 22.7 to 21.9).

Tiebreaker: Shough

The case for Mahomes is more upside (a ceiling of 22.7 to 21.9) and more big weeks (31% of his games to 17%).

What flips it

Start Patrick Mahomes instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (31% of his games to 17%).

Why Patrick Mahomes

Sit Patrick Mahomes, 0.5 pts behind Tyler Shough.

Working against Mahomes: Fewer passing yards (219.5 vs 261.8 usual), Fewer passing TDs (1.50 vs 1.80 usual), Tough matchup (F vs QB · 2026, 6 gm), Pass rush pressure (40% pressure rate).

Matchup

Patrick Mahomes (KC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. His team projects 20.0 points. It projects as a close game.

Recent form

Patrick Mahomes's last 5 games: PPR points Wk 1 · 21.7, Wk 2 · 29.0, Wk 3 · 15.9, Wk 4 · 17.0, Wk 6 · 10.5 (oldest to newest).

Compare Patrick Mahomes with…

The players closest to Patrick Mahomes in this week’s PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning, or compare your own players.

Patrick MahomesQB14 · 15.9 proj

Pick 1 to 4 players to compare with Mahomes.

Closest calls

More close calls for Mahomes

More QB start/sit callsQuarterbacks this week: the Week 7 QB rankings and all 202 calls

Stats behind the call

Each of Mahomes’s figures beside the QB12 start line. Blue means he’s ahead of it.

StatMahomesBench@ SEAQB12 lineShough · vs PIT
Scoring
ProjectionMahomes: 15.9Shough: 16.4
TD pointsof the projectionMahomes: 1.0Shough: 1.3
Expected TDsthis weekMahomes: 0.16Shough: 0.21
Projected team pointsMahomes: 20.0Shough: 20.8
Goal line carriesper gameMahomes: 0.0Shough: 0.7
Red zone carriesper gameMahomes: 0.4Shough: 1.2
Pass attempts / gameMahomes: 31.6Shough: 39.2
Range
Last 5 games PPR pointsQB12 line 16.4Avg 18.8Patrick Mahomes’s last 5 games in PPR points, oldest to newest: Week 1, 21.7; Week 2, 29.0; Week 3, 15.9; Week 4, 17.0; Week 6, 10.5. Week 7 projection 15.9. The QB12 start line is 16.4.
FloorMahomes: 12.1Shough: 14.0
CeilingMahomes: 22.7 (ahead of the line)Shough: 21.9
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMahomes: 6%Shough: 11%
Big weeks (25+ pts)Mahomes: 31% (ahead of the line)Shough: 17%
Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is betterMahomes: 19%Shough: 17%
SteadinessMahomes: Very steady±7.7 pts (ahead of the line)Shough: Steady±9.9 pts · 6 games

Patrick Mahomes player props

Hit rates, game log and usage: Patrick Mahomes props.

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