QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
@ Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4 · Dome
- Line
- 236.5
- Passing Yards
- Nuvela
- 255
- our projection
- Difference
- +18.5
- +8%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 12 of 13
- Line since open
- 0, from 236.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 236.5 | 255 | +18.5 | 2 of 5 | 236.5 | level |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 3 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 21% | 29% | +8% | 2 of 5 | 20% | 0% |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.8 | +0.3 | 4 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | 15.5 | 18.3 | +2.8 | 3 of 5 | 15.5 | level |
| Pass Attempts | 32.5 | 34.7 | +2.2 | 2 of 5 | 32.5 | level |
| Completions | 20.5 | 23 | +2.5 | 1 of 5 | 20.5 | level |
| Pass + Rush Yards | 254.5 | 282.2 | +27.7 | 1 of 5 | 257 | −2.5 |
| Longest Completion | 34.5 | 47.3 | +12.8 | 3 of 3 | 34.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 5% | 22% | +17% | 2 of 5 | 5% | level |
| Last TD | 5% | 0% | −5% | 0 of 5 | 5% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | 2% | 0% | −2% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Tue 3:04 AM236.5opened
- Tue 3:04 AM236.50
- Wed 3:05 AM241.5+5
- Wed 3:05 PM236.5−5Is Kyler Murray or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy play in Week 4?
- Thu 1:24 PM239.5+3
- Fri 7:25 AM236.5−3
Opened 236.5, now 236.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 642 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 642 games+0.5
- The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 640 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 642 games−0.1
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 236.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 255
- +18.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 246
- regular season
- Average
- 270.7
- +34.2 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 246 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 189 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 246 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last season | 259.5 | 71%10/14 | 50%7/14 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 270.7
- yards
- Median
- 246
- yards
- Above 236.5
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Passing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs DEN | 184 | 223.5 | −39.5 |
| Week 2 | vs IND | 382 | 222.5 | +159.5 |
| Week 3 | @ MIA | 246 | 235.5 | +10.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 100%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
No workload dependencies flagged.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
No injuries reported.
LV · Las Vegas Raiders
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 4
- 0 KC · 4 LV
- Ruled out
- 4
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 0
- Touch his workload
- 0
- none directly
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
No listed player changes his own workload directly. Everyone on these reports reaches him through the game — a matchup and a script, not his role.
Across both clubs, 4 ruled out and 0 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Patrick Mahomes at 236.5 passing yards. He has cleared this line in 2 of 3 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 255.0. LV ranks 3rd of 32 in sack rate and 4th in pressure rate. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
4 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- KC implied total
- 26
- favored
- LV implied total
- 21.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 63.7
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35.7
- 56% pass
- His pass attempts
- 32.7
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 5
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +3.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Las Vegas Raiders defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the pass
What Las Vegas Raiders actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees — the base under every passing prop. | 32 | 32.4 | 18th of 32 |
| Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks. | 222.3 | 230.9 | 15th of 32 |
| Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on. | 6.9 | 7.2 | 15th of 32 |
| Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt. | 62% | 65% | 7th of 32 |
| Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line. | 9% | 6% | 3rd of 32 |
| Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced — the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards. | 34% | 23% | 4th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 16% | 11% | 29th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QBhis position | 16.1 | 11th of 32 |
| RB | 17.1 | 10th of 32 |
| WR | 22.8 | 2nd of 32 |
| TE | 21.1 | 30th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Pass yds |
|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart2025 · Wk 17 | 207 |
| Justin Herbert2026 · Wk 2 | 192 |
| Trevor Lawrence2025 · Wk 9 | 220 |
| Marcus Mariota2025 · Wk 3 | 207 |
| Drake Maye2025 · Wk 1 | 287 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Att | Comp | Pass yds | Long | TD | INT | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 24 | 20 | 246 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 47 | 32 | 382 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 27 | 15 | 184 | 59 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 235.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 236.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 234.5 | −114 | −117 |
| Bovada | 241.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 241.5 | −111 | −113 |
| Fanatics | 235.5 | −120 | −110 |
| FanDuel | 236.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.