Aaron Jones or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?

Recent form

Derrick Henry's last 5 games: PPR points 45.6, 12.6, 35.3, 17.7, 21.9 (oldest to newest).

Aaron Jones's last 5 games: PPR points 11.3, 15.3, 10, 10.5, 14.2 (oldest to newest).

Henry has already beaten Jones's 22.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Jones has beaten Henry's 23.1 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.

Matchup

Derrick Henry (BAL) faces TEN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.5, spread -11.5.

Aaron Jones (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.

What flips it

Henry's edge is 0.3 points (23.1 to 22.8). Jones's ceiling (26.4) clears Henry's projection, so a big game from Jones flips it. Henry's floor (16) sits under Jones's projection, so a quiet game from Henry flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.

How to read these numbers

Confidence in the call

How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.

Floor

The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Ceiling

The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Opportunity score

Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.

Matchup grade

The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.

Implied team total

The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.

Trend

The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.

Touch share trend

The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.

Consistency

The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.

Boom rate

The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.

Bust rate

The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.

Vacated touches

Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.

Defense funnel

Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.

Game script projection

The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.