Dillon
RB · CAR vs TB
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Full · ankle
Projected points3.8ptsUsage estimate
Kiner
RB · NE vs CHI
FinalCHI 30 – 24 NE
Final points1.3pts
projected 3.2
AJ Dillon or Corey Kiner: who should I start in Week 7?
Highlights
Injuries as of Mon 7:53 PM ETWhat moves his projectionEffect vs his usual week
- Helps him: Most players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.+2.0 pts
Usually scores 1.6 → projected 3.8+2.1 pts
Also worth knowing
- EdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.
- He handles only 10% of his team's touches, so the work is shared.
- EdgeTB is the 13th toughest defense for running backs.
What moves his projectionEffect vs his usual week
- Helps him: His lines put him at 0.11 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.+0.7 pts
- Hurts him: His lines put him at 14.5 rushing yards, below his usual 23.0.−0.8 pts
- Everything else+0.7 pts
Usually scores 2.6 → projected 3.2+0.6 pts
Also worth knowing
- He handles only 11% of his team's touches, so the work is shared.
- EdgeHis team was expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionDillon: 3.8 (best)Kiner: 3.2
TD pointsof the projectionDillon: Our estimateKiner: 0.7
Expected TDsthis weekDillon: Our estimateKiner: 0.11
Projected team pointsDillon: 23.8Kiner: 23.8
Goal line carriesper gameDillon: 0.0Kiner: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameDillon: 0.3Kiner: 1.2 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameDillon: 0.0Kiner: 0.2 (best)
Role
Snap shareDillon: 12%Kiner: 12%
Usage worthptsDillon: 2.7Kiner: 3.2 (best)
Touch shareDillon: 10%Kiner: 11% (best)
Target shareDillon: 1%Kiner: 1%
Touches / gameDillon: 4.8Kiner: 5.5 (best)
Targets / gameDillon: 0.5 (best)Kiner: 0.3
Vacated touches this weekDillon: 6.0 (best)Kiner: 2.0
High value touches / gameDillon: 0.5Kiner: 0.7 (best)
Goal line carry shareDillon: 0%Kiner: 0%
Red zone touches / gameDillon: 0.3Kiner: 1.3 (best)
Rush success rateDillon: 24%Kiner: 39% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Dillon: 0%Kiner: 3.2% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredDillon: Earned by usage 2.7Scored 1.6Kiner: Earned by usage 3.2Scored 2.6
Rush yards / gameDillon: 10.8Kiner: 23.0 (best)
Points from rushingDillon: 65%Kiner: 90%
WOPRDillon: 0.02 (best)Kiner: 0.01
RZ target shareDillon: 0%Kiner: 3% (best)
Inside 10 target shareDillon: 0%Kiner: 0%
Rushing points / gameDillon: 1.1 pts / gameKiner: 2.3 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorDillon: 1.1 pts / gameKiner: 1.4 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorDillon: 2.7 (best)Kiner: 1.3
CeilingDillon: 5.9 (best)Kiner: 5.4
Points from TDssteadier when lowerDillon: 0%Kiner: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Dillon: 0%Kiner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterDillon: 100%Kiner: 100%
SteadinessDillon: Up & down (best)±1.4 pts · 4 gamesKiner: Volatile±2.5 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmDillon: C- (best)Kiner: D+
Game scriptDillon: Expected to lead (best)Kiner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterDillon: 1.3 (best)Kiner: 1.5
Defense funnelDillon: NeutralKiner: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedDillon: 2nd (tough)Kiner: 8th (tough) (best)
Backfield roleDillon: BackupKiner: Backup
Opp defender outDillon: Winfield (SAF)Kiner: Edwards (LB)
Roof / surfaceDillon: OpengrassKiner: Open
Rest / scheduleDillon: NormalKiner: Short week (4d)
Opp paceDillon: 15th (average)Kiner: 1st (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateDillon: 22%3rd (tough)Kiner: 18% (best)18th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedDillon: 3.53rd (tough)Kiner: 4.4 (best)24th (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedDillon: 19th (average) (best)Kiner: 15th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameDillon: 0.01st (tough)Kiner: 0.2 (best)25th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedDillon: 82% (best)24th (soft)Kiner: 79%19th (average)
Starting QBDillon: Young (Active)Kiner: Maye (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgDillon: 1.3Kiner: 3.5 (best)
Last 5 avgDillon: 1.7Kiner: 2.9 (best)
vs seasonDillon: −0.4Kiner: +1.0 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryDillon: 2.5Kiner: 4.5 (best)
Carries / gameDillon: 4.3Kiner: 5.2 (best)
Yards per route runDillon: 0.33Kiner: 4.00 (best)
Touch share trendDillon: RisingKiner: Rising
Games since injuryDillon: 0Kiner: None recently
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterDillon: RB54 (best)Kiner: RB61
Yards linerushingDillon: Our estimateKiner: 14.5
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