Dotson
WR · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Williams
WR · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
6.2pts
market
Antonio Williams or Jahan Dotson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jahan Dotson over Antonio Williams by 0.1. Jahan Dotson leads at 6.3. Antonio Williams is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.4 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Dotson 2.7, Williams 8.4.
Why Jahan Dotson
Start Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: start Jahan Dotson this week.
Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).
Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.3 vs 6.2); Snap share (58% vs 42%); Red zone targets (5 vs 2).
Why Antonio Williams
Sit Antonio Williams — projects 6.2, a favorable matchup vs IND.
Antonio Williams projects 6.2 points. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: bench Antonio Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Williams: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Target share (12% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C-); Last 3 avg (8.4 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 2.7); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Consistency (33% vs 0%); Boom rate (33% vs 27%); Bust rate (33% vs 40%); Targets / game (3.7 vs 2.4).
Recent form
Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Antonio Williams's last 3 games: PPR points 3.5, 5.4, 16.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Williams's worst of these 3 (3.5) beats Dotson's best (3.1) — the run argues the other way.
Dotson has already beaten Williams's 6.2 projection in 0 of his 3; Williams has beaten Dotson's 6.3 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
Antonio Williams (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)