Lemon
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Pittman
WR · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
3.5pts
10.7 proj · −7.2
Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Makai Lemon over Michael Pittman; the two are level at 10.7. Makai Lemon leads at 10.7. Michael Pittman is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Lemon and Pittman are effectively tied on projection — Lemon gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Pros
- Every-down role86% of snaps
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D- vs WR
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is targets / game: Lemon 3.0, Pittman 6.5.
Latest game on the card: Pittman 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Makai Lemon
Start Makai Lemon — projects 10.7, an even matchup vs LA.
Makai Lemon projects 10.7 points. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: start Makai Lemon this week.
Working for Lemon: Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Lemon: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Lemon leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D-); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.7); Consistency (49% vs 39%); Boom rate (33% vs 29%); Bust rate (0% vs 35%); Rest / schedule (Short week (5d) vs Short week (4d)).
Why Michael Pittman
Sit Michael Pittman — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Michael Pittman projects 10.7 points on a 3.6–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Michael Pittman this week.
Working for Pittman: Every-down role (86% of snaps).
Working against Pittman: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs WR), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Pittman leads the head-to-head: Target share (21% vs 12%); Implied team total (20.5 vs 19.5); Last 3 avg (5.2 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (5.3 vs 3.4); Targets / game (6.5 vs 3.0); Snap share (86% vs 66%); Red zone targets (18 vs 0).
Recent form
Makai Lemon's last 3 games: PPR points 1.9, 2.5, 5.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Michael Pittman's last 5 games: PPR points 7.2, 3.6, 3.1, 8.8, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Lemon has already beaten Pittman's 10.7 projection in 0 of his 3; Pittman has beaten Lemon's 10.7 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Makai Lemon (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
Michael Pittman (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Makai Lemon comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Makai Lemon10.5 · 10.7
- Makai Lemon or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Makai Lemon or Xavier Worthy10.7 · 11.3
More Michael Pittman comparisons
- Michael Pittman or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Michael Pittman10.5 · 10.7
- Michael Pittman or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)