Hollins
WR · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
12.2pts
market
Concepcion
WR · CLE vs PIT
Final pts
11.4pts
12.1 proj · −0.7
KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Mack Hollins over KC Concepcion by 0.1. Mack Hollins leads at 12.2. KC Concepcion is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Hollins and Concepcion are effectively tied on projection — Hollins gets the start on the tie-break.
Availability & news
KC Concepcion
Concepcion secured five of eight targets for 64 yards and returned two punts for 10 yards in the Browns' 27-24 win over the Steelers on Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 2, 2026)
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume4.6 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D vs WR
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hollins 6, Concepcion 2.
Concepcion: “Concepcion secured five of eight targets for 64 yards and returned two punts for 10 yards in the Browns' 27-24 win over the Steelers on Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 2, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Hollins 14.7 (PPR points).
Why Mack Hollins
Start Mack Hollins — projects 12.2, a tough matchup vs BUF.
Mack Hollins projects 12.2 points on a 6.8–14.5 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Mack Hollins this week.
Working against Hollins: Thin volume (4.6 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D vs WR).
Where Hollins leads the head-to-head: Projection (12.2 vs 12.1); Implied team total (20.8 vs 18.0); Last 3 avg (9.2 vs 6.3); Last 5 avg (10.4 vs 6.3); vs season (+0.6 vs +0.0); Boom rate (21% vs 0%); Bust rate (14% vs 33%); Red zone targets (6 vs 2).
Why KC Concepcion
Sit KC Concepcion — projects 12.1, a favorable matchup vs PIT.
KC Concepcion projects 12.1 points. The matchup grades as favorable against PIT. Usage: targets / game at 6.7. Net: bench KC Concepcion this week.
Working for Concepcion: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Concepcion: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Concepcion leads the head-to-head: Target share (24% vs 16%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D); Consistency (62% vs 45%); Targets / game (6.7 vs 4.6); Snap share (74% vs 68%).
Recent form
Mack Hollins's last 4 games: PPR points 13.9, 9.1, 3.8, 14.7 (oldest to newest).
KC Concepcion's last 3 games: PPR points 2.9, 7.8, 8.2 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Hollins has already beaten Concepcion's 12.1 projection in 2 of his 4; Concepcion has beaten Hollins's 12.2 in 0 of his 3.
Matchup
Mack Hollins (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
KC Concepcion (CLE) played PIT (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +2.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More KC Concepcion comparisons
- KC Concepcion or Ladd McConkey12.1 · 12.2
- Courtland Sutton or KC Concepcion12.0 · 12.1
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion12.3 · 12.1
- KC Concepcion or Khalil Shakir12.1 · 11.9
More Mack Hollins comparisons
- Ladd McConkey or Mack Hollins12.2 · 12.2
- Courtland Sutton or Mack Hollins12.0 · 12.2
- Justin Jefferson or Mack Hollins12.3 · 12.2
- Khalil Shakir or Mack Hollins11.9 · 12.2
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)